Bank of Russia Raises 2027–2028 Key Rate Forecast Range; Export FX Repatriation Rate at 99.5%

The summary of the key rate discussion published by the Bank of Russia after its October 23 policy meeting shows that the central bank raised its forecast trajectory for the key rate in 2027–2028. The meeting decided to keep the key rate unchanged at 14% per annum.

The adjusted forecast range for the average key rate is 12.5%–13.5% for 2027 and 9.0%–10.0% for 2028; in the July forecast, these two ranges were 10.5%–12.5% and 8%–9% respectively. At the same time, the 2026 inflation forecast range was raised from 6%–7% in July to 7.1%–7.6%. The central bank expects inflation to return to its 4% target in 2027.

On monetary regulation, Yuri Chikhanchin, head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service (Rosfinmonitoring), described the agency's foreign exchange monitoring work while attending an event marking its 25th anniversary and meeting with President Vladimir Putin. He said the regulator has brought exporters under its monitoring scope, and that 99.5% of the funds from product sales subject to repatriation have now returned to Russia, with 87% of settlements conducted in domestic currency.

Separately, according to the press service of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies now account for nearly half of Russia's exports. Deputy Minister Vladimir Ilyichev, speaking at the joint meeting of APEC foreign and trade ministers, said the ministry regards non-resource goods and innovative products as the main growth drivers for the trade balance, and sees promise in the implementation of joint projects and production cooperation. The meeting prepared for the 33rd APEC Leaders' Meeting, to be held in Shenzhen, China, on November 18–19.