Russian cod falls below $9,000/t, Chinese factories turn cautious on purchasing, Norwegian product holds firm!

In the 45th week, from November 2 to 8, 2026, quotes for Russian and Norwegian cod to China showed divergent trends. Market quotes show that the average assessed price of Russian headless and gutted (H&G) cod has fallen below $9,000/t, with the 1–2 kg size down about $100/t week on week; the equivalent Norwegian product has held relatively firm in US dollar terms, and the price gap between Russian and Norwegian product has once again drawn the attention of Chinese buyers.

The lower Russian cod quotes reflect Chinese buyers' cautious attitude toward raw material purchasing. Some Chinese processing plants are currently in no hurry to build up raw material inventories, with purchasing centered mainly on existing orders and production schedules. Market feedback shows that some factories plan to hold existing inventories and schedule production around the Spring Festival, and are unwilling to stock up heavily in advance when orders are insufficient.

The decline in raw material prices has not immediately translated into higher purchase volumes. For processing enterprises, purchasing decisions depend not only on raw material quotes but also on finished product orders, inventory levels, processing margins and export markets. The impact of US market policy changes on China's whitefish processing business has still not fully faded, and companies that rely on exporting processed products are more cautious when purchasing.

Norwegian cod prices, meanwhile, have been affected by exchange rate factors. A stronger Norwegian krone has given Norwegian raw material some support when quoted in US dollars. However, exchange rates cannot change the reality of weak purchasing demand in the Chinese market. Data published by the Norwegian Seafood Council on November 4 show that in October 2026, export volumes and export values of Norwegian wild-caught cod, haddock and other categories declined, and the stronger krone also pushed down export value in local currency terms. The Norwegian official report also noted that wild fish quotas are low, and reduced raw material supply is putting pressure on processing enterprises.

Purchasing of Norwegian cod in the Chinese market is also worth watching. Norwegian raw material prices are higher, while Russian quotes have been lowered, widening the room for buyers to compare prices across different origins. For processing plants, the margin between raw material costs and finished product selling prices matters more than simply comparing quotes per tonne. If finished product orders do not improve, companies may not immediately increase purchasing even if raw material prices fall.

Market pressure is more evident in haddock. Market assessments for the 45th week show that Norwegian H&G haddock quotes were cut by a further about $100/t, and the price premium of the 500 g to 1 kg size over Russian product narrowed to about $200/t. Based on the quote basis provided in the materials, prices for Russian and Norwegian product have fallen by a cumulative about $350/t over the past two weeks. Trade with China has made limited progress, and some Norwegian traders remain cautious about subsequent quotes.

Auction markets are also showing signs of weakening prices. Norwegian auction data for the 44th week listed in the materials show that more than 340 t of 1–2.5 kg frozen cod was traded, with the average price falling below NOK 90/kg; about 81 t of frozen haddock above 800 g was traded, at an average price of about NOK 56/kg. Because this set of breakdown data still lacks publicly available details that can be independently verified, the figures should be regarded as auction data provided by the market rather than statistical results confirmed in official reports.

Quota changes offer another line of observation for future raw material supply. Norway and Russia have set the total 2027 quota for Northeast Arctic cod at 325,000 t, an increase of 40,000 t, or about 14%, from 2026. This change means that, at least under this resource management basis for Northeast Arctic cod, the 2027 quota is not continuing to decline. Whether the quota increase translates into actual catch volumes will also depend on vessel operating schedules, fishing progress and landings.

In the 45th week, Russian and Norwegian cod quotes diverged, while haddock quotes came under pressure in tandem. The specific variables to watch next are when Chinese processing plants restock raw materials before the Spring Festival, changes in Norwegian orders to China in November, and whether lower Russian cod quotes can lead to new actual transactions.