Norwegian Institute of Marine Research study suggests warming in the Barents Sea may complicate cod stock recovery
A study by the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research found that warming waters in the Barents Sea may make the recovery of cod more complicated. Cod quotas in these waters have been cut sharply for several consecutive years, falling to a 30-year low of 269,550 tonnes in 2025.
A study by the Institute of Marine Research found that warming waters in the Barents Sea may make the recovery of cod more complicated. The findings were reported on 20 October 2026 by SeafoodSource, a North American seafood industry media outlet.
Barents Sea cod has seen sharp quota cuts in recent years, with the 2025 quota falling to 269,550 tonnes, a 30-year low. The Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group recommended raising the 2026 quota to 312,667 tonnes, but that figure is still far below historical norms—for example, the quota recommendation for 2021 was 885,600 tonnes. The quota cuts are intended to help the species recover, but the new study found that warming waters may make that recovery process more complicated.
"Warming in the Barents Sea may be positive for adult cod, but for young cod the new climate brings negative effects," Shuyang Ma, a research scientist at the Institute of Marine Research, said in a press release. "It seems to create more difficult conditions for one-year-old fish. Fewer survive, and fewer subsequently recruit to the adult stock."
Based on data collected in the 2010s, cod had record spawning stocks for several consecutive years but still experienced recruitment failure. Rapid temperature increases may be one reason the stock failed to recover. The data also showed that as the cod stock grew, other predatory species flourished in the areas where they prey on young cod. Ma said mackerel expanded its feeding grounds in the 2010s, and this expansion brought it into cod spawning and nursery areas.
"The mackerel's appetite is almost boundless, and if mackerel foraging overlaps with the drift of large cod larvae, it could have a big impact," Ma said. Cod itself also engages in cannibalism, which may also contribute to the decline.
According to Ma, models show that fishing has some effect on the stock but is not the sole cause of the recruitment problem. He also said that maintaining larger fish is important for stock health, because larger cod typically spawn earlier in the season, when predation pressure from other fish is lower.