China's Tilapia Prices Bottom Out and Stabilize, Accelerating Shift to Asia-Pacific Markets!
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China's Tilapia Prices Bottom Out and Stabilize, Accelerating Shift to Asia-Pacific Markets!
Under the heavy pressure of the United States imposing tariffs of up to 170% on Chinese tilapia, China's tilapia industry is undergoing severe turbulence. As China's largest export market for tilapia, the sudden "shutdown" of the U.S. market has caused a large number of orders to be suspended or canceled, and both upstream and downstream of the industry chain are facing enormous challenges. However, with joint intervention by the government and industry organizations, raw material prices have recently shown signs of stabilizing.
On April 14, the China Aquatic Products Processing and Marketing Alliance (CAPPMA) issued an initiative calling for maintaining the stability of the tilapia supply chain. In the two weeks since, raw material prices in major producing areas such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan began to stabilize: the ex-factory price of tilapia in the 500-800 gram size was RMB 8 per kilogram (about USD 1.10), and the price for the 300-500 gram size was RMB 6 per kilogram. Although prices have stopped falling, most farmers are still near the break-even point, with extremely limited profit margins.
Against the backdrop of the U.S. market suspending purchases, Chinese processing enterprises are reconfiguring their export strategies. For example, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products shifted some orders originally planned for the U.S. market to the domestic market. Baiyang Investment Group, a listed company mainly exporting tilapia, also announced on April 15 that it would suspend all new U.S. orders and temporarily halt delivery of existing orders. Baiyang said it is accelerating the development of domestic sales channels, including the food service sector, and upgrading some production lines to adapt to domestic market supply needs.
At the same time, China's aquatic industry is turning its attention to members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to seek new export breakthroughs. The China Fisheries Association recently released a report pointing out that since RCEP officially took effect in January 2022, China's tilapia exports to member countries have grown significantly. In 2023, total exports to RCEP countries were 3,570 tons, which, although still a small part of China's overall tilapia exports (over 400,000 tons), showed clear growth momentum.
Between 2018 and 2023, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Australia accounted for more than 90% of China's tilapia exports to RCEP countries. The form of exported products varies by country, for example, fresh and frozen fish to Indonesia and South Korea, live fish to Myanmar, and deep-processed products to Vietnam, Singapore, New Zealand, Malaysia, Japan, and other countries.
In 2023, China's average export price to RCEP countries was USD 3.09 per kilogram. Although it fell 25.9% year-on-year, it was still higher than the average export price to the United States of USD 2.82. The report's analysis pointed out that the RMB exchange rate, geographical distance, and China's per capita GDP are the three key factors affecting exports. A 1% depreciation of the RMB will drive export value up by 17.14%, while a 1% increase in geographical distance will cause export value to fall by 4.88%; a 1% increase in China's per capita GDP will boost export value by 2.91%.
Looking ahead, Indonesia, New Zealand, Myanmar, and other countries are considered to have strong growth potential; the markets of Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines are tending to stabilize; while markets such as Singapore, Vietnam, Australia, South Korea, and Japan may see some decline.
Against the backdrop of accelerating changes in the global trade landscape, China's tilapia industry is undergoing a deep "reshuffle." The export focus is gradually shifting from sole reliance on the United States toward diversification and regionalization, also finding a new "blue ocean" for China's aquatic exports.
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