Shrimp Prices Rise in Both China and the US! Is a Global Price Surge Coming?

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Shrimp Prices Rise in Both China and the US! Is a Global Price Surge Coming?

Entering April, wholesale prices for whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) in both the Chinese and US markets have risen simultaneously, quietly reshaping the global shrimp trade landscape. After three consecutive months of low prices, the Chinese market was the first to stabilize and rebound, while the US saw panic buying by importers amid policy uncertainty, forming a pattern of "rebound in the East, chase in the West." Is this rally enough to drive a comprehensive increase in origin quotations worldwide?

In China, after a prolonged decline, downstream inventories of imported Ecuadorian whiteleg shrimp have been largely digested. Taking 30/40 count water-frozen shrimp as an example, prices have risen by 5 to 15 yuan per carton over the past two weeks, equivalent to an increase of 0.5 to 1.5 yuan per kilogram, with current mainstream quotes concentrated in the range of 39.5 to 40.8 yuan/kg. Prices for 12kg salt-frozen large blocks have also been raised to between 475 and 500 yuan, returning to a high of 41.7 yuan/kg.

Some industry practitioners in Shanghai believe that the mid-April increase is only the beginning, and expect another round of stockpiling before the May Day holiday, further pushing prices upward.

Meanwhile, the US market entered "stockpiling mode" ahead of schedule due to policy changes. On April 9, former US President Trump announced a pause on reciprocal tariffs for some countries other than China, prompting importers to quickly place orders and stock up in preparation for the policy change on July 9. This move drove across-the-board price increases for whiteleg shrimp, black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon), and value-added products, with wholesale prices rising 2-5% week-on-week in Week 16, with Latin American whiteleg shrimp showing notably higher increases than Asian shrimp species.

Ecuadorian exporters quickly followed suit, with China futures quotes already rising in Week 16. CFR quotes for 30/40 water-frozen specifications stood at $4.80/kg, 20/30 reached $5.70/kg, and 40/50 also rose to $4.60/kg. This wave of buyer panic on a global scale is gradually transmitting to origins, stimulating upward revisions in quotations.

However, despite the strength in the Chinese and US markets, downstream transaction volumes still face some pressure. In the US, due to consecutive price increases, end buyers have begun to hesitate and wait, slowing transactions; the Chinese market also faces the question of whether post-holiday demand can be sustained.

Has the global shrimp price truly reached a turning point? In the short term, origin quotations have already reacted noticeably, but whether this can truly drive a global price increase will depend on whether the heat in the Chinese and US markets can continue to build, and whether other major consuming countries join the "shrimp rush." What is certain is that the long-dormant shrimp market is being reignited by these two forces from China and the US.

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