China's Tilapia Export Destinations Reshuffled! US Drops to Third by Export Volume

In week 45 of 2026 (November 2 to 8), ex-factory raw material prices in major tilapia-producing regions of southern China diverged: in Hainan, the 500–800g specification rose by RMB 0.20 per kilogram, while the same specification fell by RMB 0.10 in both Guangdong and Guangxi. The price gap between Hainan and Guangdong-Guangxi narrowed, and raw material price trends across southern producing regions showed clear divergence.

This week, Hainan's ex-factory price was raised by about USD 0.03/kg, while purchase prices at processing plants in Guangdong and Guangxi edged lower. Regional price movements did not point in a uniform direction, and quotes for the 500–800g raw material fish became the main change in southern producing regions this week. For processing plants, regional differences in raw material procurement costs narrowed somewhat, but purchase prices still vary across producing regions.

Côte d'Ivoire and Mexico Overtake the US as Export Market Structure Shifts

Changes in China's tilapia export markets are more striking. At the 2026 China Seafood Summit, the Hainan Aquatic Products Processing and Marketing Association disclosed that, by export volume, the US has fallen from China's largest tilapia export destination to third, with Côte d'Ivoire and Mexico ranking first and second respectively.

From January to August 2026, China exported 106,100 tonnes of tilapia products to Côte d'Ivoire, 68,200 tonnes to Mexico, and 61,600 tonnes to the US. Export volume to the US market fell 13.2% year on year, and the volume gap with Côte d'Ivoire has widened.

By export value, however, the US remains China's most important tilapia market. The main reason is the difference in product mix: China's exports to the US are mainly higher-value-added products such as fillets, while purchases in African markets are concentrated more on whole frozen fish. Differences in unit value across products mean the US remains first by export value even after falling to third by export volume.

From January to August 2026, China's tilapia export value to the US was about USD 150 million, down 36% year on year. Export volume fell 13.2% while export value fell 36%, reflecting that exports to the US face not only lower shipment volumes but also pressure on the value of exported products.

US Imports Fall in Both Volume and Value; China's Tariff Disadvantage Remains Pronounced

US market import data confirm the procurement contraction. In August 2026, US tilapia imports were 7,086 tonnes, down 33.1% year on year; import value was USD 22.25 million, down 40.5% year on year. The decline in import value exceeded that in import volume, indicating that the average value of imported products in the US market also fell that month.

The tariff gap remains an important competitive factor for Chinese exporters. Under the tariff rates provided, the rate on Chinese tilapia shipped to the US is 37.5%, while the corresponding rates for Indonesian and Vietnamese products are about 10%–12.5%. Chinese exports face a higher import tax burden in the US market, while Indonesian and Vietnamese suppliers enjoy a clear tariff advantage.

The FAO's tilapia market analysis published in October 2026 also listed weak US demand and shifts in trade flows as important features of the global tilapia market in 2026. The agency previously disclosed that in the first quarter of 2026, China's exports of frozen whole tilapia rose 39.4% year on year, with exports to Côte d'Ivoire reaching 38,900 tonnes; over the same period, China's exports to the US fell 34.5%. Growing purchases of Chinese whole frozen fish by African markets contrast with the import contraction in the US market.

US Wholesale Quotes Steady in Week 44; Acceptance of Restocking Still to Be Seen

US frozen tilapia wholesale prices held fully steady within the established quote range in week 44 (October 26 to November 1). US market inventories are relatively ample and buyers are cautious in purchasing, temporarily buffering the impact of changes in Chinese raw material prices and restocking quotes.

US wholesale prices did not rise in tandem with changes in Chinese raw material quotes, indicating that importers' existing inventories remain an important factor affecting the pace of purchasing. For Chinese exporters, whether quotes are accepted by US buyers depends not only on raw material costs but also on the speed at which importers draw down inventories and actual restocking demand.

In week 45, prices in southern Chinese producing regions already showed divergence, with Hainan rising and Guangdong-Guangxi falling; the US market remains in a state of steady wholesale prices and cautious purchasing. Going forward, attention should be paid to US inventory turnover and the extent to which importers accept higher restocking quotes.