Mainstream Canadian live lobster prices fall over 9% year-on-year, large sizes buck the trend!

In week 45 of 2026 (November 2 to 8), after the first batch of autumn-winter Canadian live lobster arrived in China, the market showed divergence by size. The 1.25 lb mainstream size shipped to Shanghai fell to USD 11.00/lb, down 9.1% year-on-year; the 1.00 lb small size was quoted at USD 10.72/lb, down 10.3% year-on-year. The 2.50–3.00 lb large size was quoted at USD 13.50/lb, up 5.1% from the same period last year.

The decline in mainstream size prices is related to a recent increase in arrivals and some traders cutting prices to move stock. A Chinese importer said that since last Friday, arrivals of Boston lobster have increased and some traders have begun selling at lower prices. Previously the market was stronger and traders had good profit margins; after the recent concentration of arrivals, prices came under pressure.

In China's week 45 wholesale market for live North American lobster, not all sizes fell in sync—most size quotes were flat versus the previous week, with only two smaller sizes showing slight declines. The year-on-year changes in Shanghai market export quotes reflect that price trends across sizes have already diverged.

Limited supply of large sizes, prices clearly stronger than mainstream sizes

The counter-trend rise in large lobster quotes is related to their low share of Canada's catch. Stewart Lamont, managing director of Tangier Lobster, estimates that lobster of 800 g, about 1.75 lb and above, accounts for less than 10% of Canada's total catch. Small lobster is the size with the largest landings in each fishing area, with relatively ample market supply and more direct price competition.

This means the current price decline is mainly concentrated in the mainstream sizes with larger supply, while large products remain supported by scarcity. For importers, procurement costs and sales rhythms have already diverged across sizes, and referring to a single composite quote makes it difficult to reflect the actual market for each size.

Two major winter fishing areas open on November 30, new supply is coming

Canada's two important lobster fishing areas, LFA 33 and LFA 34 in Nova Scotia, are scheduled to open on November 30, with the season expected to run until May 31, 2027. The two areas are located along the southwestern and southeastern coasts of Nova Scotia, covering the Bay of Fundy area to waters near Halifax.

According to industry estimates, LFA 33 and 34 are expected to contribute about 22,000–25,000 tonnes of live hard-shell lobster this season, equivalent to about a quarter of Canada's annual catch of about 100,000 tonnes. After the new season starts, the supply situation for mainstream sizes will become an important variable affecting quotes in the Chinese market.

Other fishing areas have successively entered their operating periods. LFA 35 opened on October 14; LFA 36 and 38 are scheduled to open on November 10. With the staggered opening times of different fishing areas, Canadian autumn-winter live lobster supply will enter the market in batches.

Vietnam overtakes Canada, China's import source landscape has already changed

Supply sources for the Chinese market have also changed markedly. In 2025, China imported 14,408 tonnes of Canadian live fresh lobster worth USD 347.5 million, down about 42% and 43% respectively from 2024. In the same period, Vietnam surpassed Canada with exports of 24,067 tonnes worth USD 771.2 million, becoming China's largest source of live lobster.

In the first 8 months of 2026, China imported 12,235 tonnes of Canadian live fresh lobster worth USD 273.3 million; imports from Vietnam were 19,551 tonnes worth USD 632.2 million. Canada's exports to China have not yet recovered to previous levels, and Vietnam's leading advantage in the Chinese market remains clear.

A global lobster trade analysis released by FAO in September 2026 shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam's lobster export value reached USD 341.79 million, higher than Canada's USD 288.12 million. Vietnamese lobster is mainly sold to China and Hong Kong, China, with live green spiny lobster (绿螯龙虾) being an important export product. Canada mainly competes with cold-water lobster, and the two are not entirely the same in species, size and consumption scenarios.

Tariff arrangements still require official document confirmation

China has suspended the 25% additional tariff imposed on Canadian lobster and crab since March 1, 2026, originally scheduled to run until December 31. Canada's existing official policy documents still list this deadline. On November 4, Chinese and Canadian economic and trade officials held talks, and both sides said they would continue to promote trade cooperation; reports that the suspension arrangement will be extended to the end of 2028 still need to be confirmed by formal announcements from both China and Canada, and the original expiry date cannot be regarded as already changed on this basis.

LFA 36 and 38 open on November 10, and LFA 33 and 34 enter the major winter fishing season on November 30. The pace of arrivals of mainstream sizes in the Chinese market, traders' inventory digestion, and the first landings of the new season will directly affect quotes in the coming weeks.