‘Weak Seafood, Strong Freshwater’ Sets the Pattern! Q1 2025 Aquatic Product Market Trades Steady, Price Trends Diverge Sharply!
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According to the latest industry analysis article released by CAPPMA: In the first quarter of 2025, the national aquatic product trading volume and trading value both grew slightly, but price performance was "ice and fire"—seafood product prices generally weakened, while freshwater fish species welcomed increases due to tightened supply. This article explains in detail the supply and demand logic and market dynamics behind "weak seafood, strong freshwater."
"Weak Seafood, Strong Freshwater" Pattern Emerges: China's Aquatic Product Market Stable with Changes in Q1 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, China's aquatic product market as a whole showed stable operation, active trading, and stable consumption. According to monitoring data from 45 major aquatic product wholesale markets nationwide, in Q1 the national aquatic product trading volume reached 2.4099 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%; the trading value reached 69.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.80%. On the basis that total trading volume and value remained basically stable, the price structure of aquatic products showed an obvious divergence, namely the trend of "seafood products weakening, freshwater products strengthening" became increasingly prominent.
#### Seafood Product Prices Under Overall Pressure, Import Impact and Weak Catering Become Main Causes
From the price trend perspective, seafood products as a whole were in a downward channel. Among the six major varieties under key monitoring, only large yellow croaker and sea bass prices rose slightly, while the remaining varieties fell to varying degrees. Among them, the average price of large yellow croaker was 39.21 yuan/kg, up 2.56% year-on-year; sea bass was 37.49 yuan/kg, up 2.30% year-on-year. The prices of golden pompano, turbot, whiteleg shrimp, and abalone fell 6.97%, 7.52%, 8.98%, and 0.18%, respectively.
The formation of this trend is inseparable from the continuous progress of marine aquaculture technology in recent years. Aquaculture output grew rapidly, the supply side was sufficient, creating downward pressure on prices. In addition, seafood product consumption is highly dependent on mid- to high-end catering scenarios, while data from the China Cuisine Association show that in Q1 this year the national catering industry prosperity index was continuously below the neutral value, showing a trend of sustained slight contraction, with demand clearly weak.
At the same time, price competition from imported aquatic products also intensified market pressure. According to customs statistics, from January to February 2025 China imported 705,300 tons of aquatic products through general trade, up 5.01% year-on-year; the import value was 3.211 billion US dollars, up 3.41% year-on-year. Among them, import prices for varieties such as king crab, lobster, and salmon generally declined, further lowering domestic seafood price levels.
In addition, CPI data show that food prices continued to decline after the Spring Festival in Q1, falling 3.3% and 1.4% year-on-year in February and March respectively, and overall consumer market sentiment was sluggish, making it difficult for seafood product prices to improve.
#### Freshwater Product Prices Generally Rise, Supply Contraction and Pre-Holiday Demand Drive Increases
In sharp contrast to the weak prices of seafood products, freshwater fish prices showed strong resilience and upward momentum. Among the 10 key freshwater varieties monitored, bulk freshwater fish generally rose, with prices of grass carp, silver carp, common carp, and crucian carp all increasing to varying degrees. Among them, common carp rose 9.41% year-on-year, and crucian carp rose 8.10%, representative of relatively obvious increases.
Behind this round of price increases is a clear contraction on the aquaculture side. Affected by the sluggish market in the previous two years, the aquaculture scale of bulk freshwater fish generally decreased. According to data from the "2024 National Fishery Economic Situation Analysis," from January to November 2024, the stocking quantities of grass carp, silver carp, bighead carp, common carp, and crucian carp fell 45.74%, 24.12%, 72.33%, 55.11%, and 31.77%, respectively. Reduced fry stocking and shrinking production capacity directly led to low adult fish pond inventory in Q1 2025, tighter supply, and higher prices.
Some famous, special, and superior freshwater fish varieties showed divergent trends. The prices of mandarin fish, largemouth bass, and snakehead fell somewhat, mainly affected by aquaculture structure adjustment and disease. For example, the popularization of feed-based mandarin fish farming reduced farming costs and also intensified price competition; largemouth bass prices were weak for mixed grades due to oversupply in major production areas such as Guangdong; snakehead continued to be sluggish because farmers were reluctant to sell after earlier market weakness, and pre-holiday demand support was limited.
At the same time, many places experienced late spring cold weather in Q1, with large temperature differences between day and night, unfavorable for fish growth. In some areas diseases occurred frequently, and low-priced diseased fish were dumped, further depressing local market prices.
#### Outlook for Q2: Freshwater Fish May Still Have Room to Rise, Seafood Products Tend Toward Stability
Looking ahead to Q2, as fry stocking seasons fully unfold across regions, aquaculture will gradually enter a cyclical adjustment stage. For seafood products, the summer fishing moratorium will cause short-term supply-demand mismatch for some live seafood products, possibly pushing prices up in stages, but because the cold-chain logistics system is increasingly complete and aquaculture technology is mature, overall supply is still guaranteed, and prices are expected to remain stable.
For freshwater fish, although pond harvest volumes may gradually recover in the latter part of Q2, supply will still be relatively tight. Driven by traditional consumption peak seasons such as Qingming, May Day, and Dragon Boat Festival, prices may have further room to rise. However, export-oriented varieties such as tilapia still need to be alert to adverse effects brought by changes in international trade, especially export pressure caused by China-US trade friction.
Overall, in the first quarter of 2025 China's aquatic product market traded steadily, structural price divergence intensified, and the "weak seafood, strong freshwater" market pattern may continue in the coming quarters.
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