冻品攻略

Pollock Raw Material Prices Begin to Fall Back but Remain at Historic Highs

Source: 冻品攻略2026-04-16 08:000 views0 comments

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After rising for several consecutive weeks, prices for Russian 25+ headless and gutted pollock (walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma) have finally seen a slight correction. The latest price tracking shows that in week 16, CFR quotes to China for Russian 25+ headless and gutted pollock meeting EU and MSC requirements were cut by USD 60 to 70 per tonne. That decline does not look small, but against the previous run-up it is more of a pullback from highs. Current levels remain at historically extremely high levels, second only to the record set in week 15.

The market has not turned loose simply because of this cut. Trading participants generally judge that this round of decline is more like a short-term correction after prices rose too fast earlier, and does not mean raw materials have truly weakened. Some Russian sellers believe that the rapid price increase in previous weeks was driven not by the production side but by push-buying and stockpiling in the trading segment. Now that some traders have begun short-selling, prices have loosened. The problem is that such a correction means limited to Chinese buyers; raw materials are still expensive, and the pressure on processors has not been substantially eased.

What the Chinese market is most concerned about right now is not only headless and gutted pollock quotes, but whether twice-frozen PBO block frozen fillets can keep up in price. On April 17, the market will update monthly quotes for Chinese twice-frozen full-fillet PBO block frozen fillets. In March, the duty-paid cold-store price for this product was already higher than the latest levels for Russian and US single-frozen PBO fillets. Some Chinese sellers currently hope to raise prices by a further USD 500 to 600 per tonne on top of March, while European buyers clearly want to hold back the increase. At next week's Seafood Expo Global in Barcelona, pollock fillet quotes will be a key topic of discussion, and the outcome of this round of price talks will directly affect the raw material and finished product markets in the second half of this year.

For Chinese processors, the real pain is that finished product prices are not rising fast enough while raw materials have surged too sharply. Market sources indicate that fillet prices are rising noticeably more slowly than headless and gutted pollock. Once raw material prices stay above USD 2,000 per tonne for a prolonged period, Chinese plants that continue to take cargo can easily fall into losses. That is precisely why European buyers are keeping a tight grip on fillet price increases this time and are unwilling to readily accept large increases from Chinese sellers.

Russian companies' assessment of the product mix for the second half is also changing. Raw material suppliers generally believe that the Chinese fillet market will first set the price benchmark for the second half, and that Russia and the United States will then adjust accordingly. If Barcelona does not produce a satisfactory fillet price, Russian companies will not have a strong incentive to expand PBO fillet output. Some European traders have explicitly stated that when fish flesh is softer, it is more suitable for headless and gutted products, and that fillet yields are not worthwhile, so plants will naturally prioritize resources toward higher-profit items.

Supply-side data also explain why this correction is unlikely to turn into a real decline. The Okhotsk Sea season ended on April 9, fishing in the East Sakhalin area will continue until early May, and the Bering Sea season will not open until May 15. The market is not optimistic about subsequent fishing conditions; last year conditions in the western Bering Sea were already poor, and whether this will repeat this year keeps sellers cautious. As of April 10, Russia's total pollock catch was 1.02 million tonnes, down 4% year on year; headless and gutted pollock output was 344,500 tonnes, down 3.5% year on year, a decrease of nearly 13,000 tonnes from the same period last year.

By product, PBO fillet output rose 5% year on year to 54,000 tonnes, but 11,400 tonnes of that could not be sold into the EU market because some Russian vessels lack EU permits, so the effective supply actually available for circulation is not as loose as the headline data suggest. Surimi output fell 12% year on year to 36,700 tonnes; whole fish was one of the few growing major categories, up 3.5% year on year to 43,000 tonnes. For Chinese buyers, this decline of a few dozen dollars in Russian 25+ headless and gutted pollock amounts to little more than a breather at high levels; the key going forward remains whether twice-frozen PBO block frozen fillets can truly push prices up.