冻品攻略

Global shrimp prices lose direction: large sizes keep falling, small sizes hold steady for now

Source: 冻品攻略2026-04-15 08:000 views0 comments

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In mid-April, global farmed shrimp prices did not move in a unified direction. The latest week's market information shows that India's farmgate prices rose for the second consecutive week, Indonesia's earlier rally began to stall, Vietnam continued to slide, Ecuador was slightly weak, and the Chinese market showed more pronounced size differentiation: large sizes continued to weaken, while small sizes held steady for now. In week 16, the global farmed shrimp farmgate price index stood at USD 3.31 per kg, almost unchanged from USD 3.30 the previous week, but still 7% lower than the same period last year.

Changes in the Chinese market were mainly concentrated across sizes. In Guangdong, 60-count remained flat for the third consecutive week, 40-count fell nearly 3% week on week, and 80-count and 100-count remained stable, indicating that supply of small sizes is beginning to tighten while large sizes remain under pressure. Market sources show that small-size supply is somewhat tight in some areas of South China, with 60-count in Guangxi even seeing a slight upward adjustment; prices in Jiangsu, Fujian and Shandong remain weak. Greenhouse shrimp in Jiangsu will enter a concentrated harvest phase in May, while some farmers in Shandong plan to harvest early before the "May Day" holiday, so spot prices remain under pressure in the short term. China's benchmark size price is nearly 39% lower than the same period last year, still the market with the deepest year-on-year decline among major producing regions.

India's movement this week was the most unexpected for processors. Prices rose across all sizes, with increases of 2%-4%. The 50-count, which had been flat for four consecutive weeks, was also pushed higher again, with 30-count up nearly 16% year on year, 80-100-count up 14%-16% year on year, and 40-60-count up 5%-6% year on year. Based on seasonal patterns, India's prices should have gradually softened this round as new-season supply recovered. Local stocking began at the end of January and basically ended in mid-April, with the main harvest peak usually occurring in mid-May. Processors and exporters had originally expected prices to continue falling, but that judgment was once again proven wrong.

Indonesia's market shifted from consecutive increases to high-level consolidation. The 60-count price fell 1.4% week on week, while some other sizes declined slightly or were flat, but overall prices remain significantly higher than last year, with all tracked sizes up 13%-29% year on year. Local farmers report that supply is still tight, with relatively more small sizes and slow recovery in large sizes. The underlying reasons remain low early-year stocking and the lingering loss impact from last year's cesium incident, with many farmers remaining cautious about further stocking and some farms having already switched to other fish species.

Vietnam and Ecuador showed relatively weaker directions. Vietnam's whiteleg shrimp farmgate prices continued to decline, mainly due to the recovery of new-season supply. Local institutions say stocking increased in March and that momentum continued in April, with abnormal rainfall that plagued farming last year decreasing and disease pressure lower than the previous year, pointing to a relatively good new-season output outlook. Ecuador's prices were broadly stable this week, but the market has begun to focus on rising fuel costs and weather disruptions; if subsequent harvesting is delayed, supply may tighten again. Ecuador's prices across sizes remain significantly lower than last year, with the deepest year-on-year declines in small sizes: 70-80-count and 80-100-count are 17%-20% lower than the same period last year, and 60-70-count is about 11% lower.

The most prominent feature of this round of global shrimp prices is neither a one-way rise nor a synchronized decline, but rather different origins and different sizes each following their own rhythm. In the Chinese market, large sizes are still probing lower while small sizes have stabilized first; India is strengthening against the trend before its harvest peak; Indonesia's high prices reflect slower supply recovery; and Vietnam is still digesting new-season volume. Going forward, it will be harder for buyers to use a single price judgment to cover all origins; size spreads and arrival timing will be more critical than simple rises or falls.