Skipjack leads gains, yellowfin follows, tuna raw material supply tightens across the board, Thai canneries refuse to pay

Tight supply in the global tuna market is intensifying. The pressure is concentrated first on skipjack — the most important raw material species for the global canned tuna industry, whose supply changes directly affect major processing centers such as Thailand and Ecuador. Recently, skipjack delivery prices in Bangkok have begun to rise, and as a key global tuna processing and trading hub, the purchasing moves of Thai canneries have become a market focus.

Faced with higher prices proposed by suppliers, large Thai canneries have not accepted them wholesale, showing clear resistance, and Bangkok skipjack prices carry strong reference value for the global supply chain. If supply remains insufficient, price pressure may ultimately still be passed through to canned products and end markets. Supply pressure is also transmitting to yellowfin tuna: in Ecuador, yellowfin prices continue to rise, and some processors have begun reducing daily production. With both major processing centers under pressure, the global tuna supply chain is tightening accordingly.

The current tightening of skipjack supply is directly related to seasonal fishing restrictions in the Pacific. The Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) stipulates that purse seiners may not conduct fishing operations associated with fish aggregating devices (FADs) within 20° north and south latitude from July 1 to August 15 each year. FADs are an important tool for purse seine tuna fishing, and the ban is mainly intended to reduce fishing of juvenile fish and control pressure on the resource. Skipjack accounts for about 64% of total tuna catches in the Western and Central Pacific. WCPFC data show that in 2025 the average price of purse-seine-caught skipjack imported by Thailand was USD 1,641/tonne, up 8% year on year; raw material prices were already on an upward path, and the fishing ban since July has further compressed short-term supply.

The FAD fishing ban in the Western Pacific ended on August 15. In theory, supply is expected to increase gradually once purse seiners resume operations, but whether this can ease price pressure will depend on actual catches after resumption and the speed at which fish enters Asian processing markets. Just as Western Pacific supply is preparing to recover, some fleets in the Eastern Pacific have entered a closure period: the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) stipulates that large purse seiners must observe a 64-day fishing ban in 2026, with fleets able to choose one of two periods — August 6 to October 8, or November 9 to January 11 of the following year. With the closure periods in the two oceans following one after another, the gap in raw material supply is being stretched longer.

Ecuador is a globally important tuna fishing and processing center with large canned production capacity, and processors need both large volumes of skipjack and yellowfin tuna to maintain production. With skipjack supply on the tight side, some processing plants have reduced daily production, choosing between higher procurement costs and lower production scale. A shortage of skipjack may also create a substitution effect — when processors need to maintain capacity while skipjack is reduced, they will increase yellowfin purchases, and pressure gradually spreads from a single species to other tuna varieties.

Unlike Ecuadorian processors bearing raw material pressure, Thai canneries are striving to control procurement costs. Behind this are the canning industry's own cost constraints: with raw fish prices continuing to rise, processors can only choose among compressing margins, reducing purchase volumes, and raising end prices, while canned products are limited by retail channels and consumer price sensitivity, so raw material costs cannot be passed downstream without limit — hence the standoff between buyers and sellers.

Changes in global raw material prices may ultimately also transmit to Europe. Spain is one of the EU's most important tuna processing centers, and its supply chain is highly dependent on global raw material supply, including tuna caught by EU fleets, imported frozen whole fish, and pre-cooked loins. The transmission of price increases to Europe lags, and companies' earlier procurement contracts, inventory levels, and supply cycles can buffer part of the pressure, but if global supply tightness continues to extend, cost pressure on European canneries will still gradually increase.

At present, the FAD fishing ban in the Western Pacific has ended, and the market is waiting for actual catch performance after resumption, while some purse seiners in the Eastern Pacific remain in closure. How much of the gap skipjack recatches can fill, and whether yellowfin tuna prices can hold at high levels, are the two direct variables for observing the direction of the global tuna supply chain next.