Global Shrimp Prices Fall Across the Board! China Unlikely to Be the "Buyer of Last Resort" as Exporting Countries Turn East and Hit Another Cold Snap!
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Global Shrimp Prices Fall Across the Board! China Unlikely to Be the "Buyer of Last Resort" as Exporting Countries Turn East and Hit Another Cold Snap!
Global Shrimp Prices Fall Across the Board, Exporting Countries Under Heavy Pressure
In mid-June, prices fell almost simultaneously in the world's main whiteleg shrimp (南美白虾, Litopenaeus vannamei) producing regions. Affected by the sharp drop in demand after the U.S. market's early purchasing, combined with continued uncertainty over future tariff policies, major exporting countries such as Ecuador, Vietnam and India have once again set their sights on the Chinese market. However, China is in the peak of its farming season, with domestic shrimp coming to market in concentrated volumes and domestic demand still weak; the Chinese market may find it difficult to be the "backstop" that saves the global market.
Chinese Market Prices Hit New Lows, Farmers Suffering
In week 24 (June 9 to 15), shrimp prices in many parts of China fell to rock bottom. In Fujian, the farm-gate price of 60-count whiteleg shrimp fell to 26 yuan/kg, and in Jiangsu it also dropped to 28 yuan/kg, approaching the cost line for ordinary farmers. The situation in South China was slightly better; in Guangdong and Guangxi, hot weather, typhoon effects and fewer diseased shrimp led to a tight supply of large-size shrimp, while small-size shrimp were in ample supply, and overall prices were relatively stable.
Industry insiders generally believe that the uneven pace of shrimp harvesting among Chinese farmers has exacerbated the short-term mismatch between market supply and demand, while consumers continue to maintain a cautious spending attitude, making it difficult to form effective support.
Ecuador's Exports Hit a Record, but Market Feedback Is Lukewarm
Ecuador's shrimp prices were relatively stable in week 24. The farm-gate price for 30/40 count rose by 0.05 USD to 3.50 USD/kg. Behind this, however, is the hidden concern of another record export volume. It is reported that in May Ecuador exported more than 136,000 tonnes of frozen shrimp, a high point in recent years. Affected by red tide, many shrimp were forced to be harvested early, disrupting the normal rhythm of supply and demand and further adding to market pressure.
Ecuadorian exporters said that demand in the U.S. market has fallen sharply by about 35%, the Chinese market has also shown no obvious improvement, and global consumption is weak overall, with an unclear outlook.
Vietnam Rushes to Harvest and Pushes Prices Down, Rainy Season and Disease Pose Double Risks
Vietnam saw a large wave of shrimp harvesting as the rainy season arrived; in week 24 the price for 60 count fell from 104,857 Vietnamese dong to 104,000 dong (about 3.99 USD/kg). Purchasing by processing plants remained at a high level, but supply pressure is still rising. The uncertainty of the weather prompted some farmers to choose to harvest shrimp early to prevent disease outbreaks. Prices are expected to fall further in the short term.
India's Prices Edge Up, Black Tiger Shrimp Enters Peak Season
In contrast with other producing regions, Indian shrimp prices edged up this week. In Andhra Pradesh, the price for 60 count rose to INR 295 (about 3.42 USD/kg). The black tiger shrimp (黑虎虾, Penaeus monodon) season has also recently begun, with the price for 30 count already up to INR 510/kg and for 20 count reaching INR 610/kg.
China and Vietnam have become the main export destinations. Facing uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, many exporters hope to complete shipments before the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline.
Indonesia Falls Across the Board, Producing Areas Under the Greatest Pressure
Indonesian shrimp prices moved lower overall, with 30 count falling from IDR 84,000 to IDR 79,000/kg (about 4.85 USD/kg), and 40 and 60 count showing notable declines. Small 100-count shrimp plunged by IDR 6,500/kg to IDR 42,000/kg.
Overall, Indonesia currently faces the greatest downward price pressure, with extremely limited profit margins at the farming end, which may affect the enthusiasm for subsequent stocking.
China Hard-Pressed to Shoulder Global "Unsold" Pressure Alone
The global downward trend in shrimp prices is obvious, and the main producing regions are all scrambling to "find a way out" under the multiple pressures of weakening U.S. demand, a sluggish China and overproduction. But the Chinese market itself is in a period of supply-demand adjustment and can hardly serve as a backstop for global inventories again. If exporting countries pin their hopes on the Chinese market alone, they may face the risk of a second round of unsold goods, and the entire industry chain still needs to carefully regulate its pace to avoid a collective stampede.
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