Amid Salmon Glut Storm, China Becomes One of Norway's Top Export Destinations!
In April 2025, Norway's salmon exports to mainland China hit a record 8,224 tonnes, up 188% year-on-year, making China the third-largest market for Norwegian salmon. With global production set to grow 6.4% to 10% in 2025, China is emerging as a key outlet for surplus supply.
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Amid Salmon Glut Storm, China Becomes One of Norway's Top Export Destinations!
In the spring of 2025, a quietly arriving salmon "flood" is hitting the Chinese market. According to the latest data from the Norwegian Seafood Council, in April of this year alone, Norway's salmon exports to mainland China reached as high as 8,224 tonnes, a year-on-year surge of 188%, setting a record high. This surge has propelled China to become the third-largest export market for Norwegian salmon, and the momentum is still rising.
Against the backdrop of still-weak global consumption and inventory backlogs in multiple markets, China is becoming one of the largest recipients of Norway's salmon "excess capacity."
How to Absorb the Surging Production? China Becomes a Key Global Market
According to forecasts by the industry authority Kontali, global farmed salmon production in 2025 will grow by 6.4% to 10% compared with last year, meaning up to 400,000 tonnes of additional supply will appear on the global market—equivalent to twice the UK's annual salmon consumption.
Among this, Norway is the main force behind this wave of supply. Its first-quarter production rose 12.6% year-on-year, setting a record high for the same period in history. More importantly, Norwegian companies reported better fish quality and a lower downgrade rate, allowing both the volume and quality of exported products to rise.
It is against this backdrop that the importance of the Chinese market has suddenly increased. Sigmund Bjørgo, Director of the Norwegian Seafood Council for China and Hong Kong, said:
"This growth was completely unexpected. Despite previous concerns about China's economic downturn, what we are seeing is explosive demand for salmon."
At the beginning of 2025, exports of fresh whole fish from Norway to China grew by 33%, and this category is being absorbed on a large scale by China's mid-to-high-end retail and foodservice channels.
A Price War Looms: Will Low-Priced Salmon Reshape the Market Structure?
The direct consequence of the supply surge is intensified price pressure. Data shows that over the past 10 years, Norwegian salmon was generally priced $1.32 per pound higher than Chilean salmon, but in the first quarter of 2025, the price gap between the two narrowed to a historic low of just $0.34.
At times, the ex-factory price of Norwegian salmon has even fallen below that of Chilean products—an extremely rare "price inversion" phenomenon.
If this trend continues, the Chinese market will face a structural price reconstruction: How can high-end salmon products maintain their brand premium? Will mid-range products be squeezed by cheap goods? And what does this mean for the domestic cold chain, e-commerce, and aquatic product processing industry chains?
The U.S. Market Is "Overflowing with Fish," But Still Cannot Absorb All the Capacity
Although the United States remains the world's largest salmon importer, its absorption capacity has become saturated. In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports of European salmon increased 39.6% year-on-year, but the price response was lukewarm, and the pace of absorption lagged.
The United States will also see a big year for Alaskan wild salmon, with an expected increase of 150,000 tonnes in supply. Add to that the cyclical growth of Russian pink salmon, which, although excluded from the U.S. market, will affect price confidence in Europe and other Asian markets.
By comparison, China's growth appears more "strategically significant." On the one hand, it has a huge foodservice market and fresh food e-commerce channels; on the other hand, its policies are relatively stable and its customs clearance mechanisms are gradually improving, providing a scarce "outlet" for exporters such as Norway.
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