Norway Salmon Spot Prices Under Pressure for Second Consecutive Week, Pre-Christmas Seasonal Rally Slow to Materialize

On November 6, Norwegian seafood news outlet iLaks, as usual, collected salmon spot quotes for next week's delivery after lunch. Information from multiple exporters, traders and farmers pointed consistently to the same situation: the new quote week remains under price pressure, and the seasonal rally that typically occurs before Christmas has yet to arrive.

One exporter told iLaks that last Friday they paid two kroner more for fish, the 4-7 kg size was flat, Oslo prices this week were at NOK 65-66, and they actually paid slightly more. He said it was a heavy week, especially for sizes above 6 kg.

For next week's trend, this exporter judged there would not be much change: the exchange rate has improved slightly, but customers firmly refuse to accept price increases, sizes above 5 kg should come down, and 2-5 kg is basically stable, because there are "too many large fish."

Other exporters saw lower price levels. After factoring in two kroner of freight from northern Norway to Oslo, one exporter said that at the level customers are willing to pay, 3-4 kg and 4-6 kg should be at NOK 61 and 62, two kroner lower than last Friday; some farmers are trying to hold prices, corresponding to NOK 62 for 3-4 kg and NOK 63 for 4-6 kg, one krone higher than the former. He also mentioned that this week's exchange rate trend was "quite ugly," that there is a larger volume of large-sized fish above 6 kg from many different sources, and that this size is "very dangerous"; Chinese market demand has still not really kicked in, losses there have already been substantial, importers have naturally cut back purchase volumes, and will not increase purchases again for some time.

A trader's account echoed this: prices were adjusted somewhat this week, it was a quiet week in terms of sales, price levels heard in the market varied, but 3-6 kg was roughly NOK 62-64.

There were also farmers seeing higher prices. He said unsold fish earlier this week had been as low as NOK 64, while currently 3-4 kg is quoted at NOK 67 and 4-6 kg at NOK 68, and he said he holds a large quantity of 4-6 kg fish. He was also pleased about the euro exchange rate recovery: the rate rose from 10.29 to 10.50, a difference of 1.5 kroner. He mentioned that the premium for large-sized fish in Europe is relatively modest, while Asia is in the mid-NOK 70s, and prices with China have not yet been agreed and will only be determined that evening. He also explained the premium pattern for sizes above 6 kg: a premium usually exists during the generation shift from July to September, but as the fish gain weight the premium disappears, and this is now affecting the large-sized fish market.

Regarding the pre-Christmas seasonal rally, this farmer admitted he is indeed waiting. He said that based on Kontali's feed sales and biomass data, fish weight gain has exceeded the forecasts of that company and most other institutions; with only a few weeks left until Christmas, he is confident of an increase based on still-solid demand, an exchange rate within a certain range, and supply volumes about to decline, but all of this is happening much later than many people thought.

iLaks explained its quoting methodology: every Friday after lunch it collects salmon spot prices for next week's delivery, contacting multiple links in the value chain including farmers, exporters and importers, always ensuring at least five independent sources, although not all sources are published and the sources used are not fixed each time.