冻品攻略

China Salmon Prices Rebound, Europe Pulls Back as Global Trends Diverge

Source: 冻品攻略2026-05-31 08:00

Global salmon markets showed clear regional divergence ahead of June. China's market ended weeks of declines with a price rebound, restoring importer profitability; Norwegian spot prices edged lower; the US market strengthened again; and Scotland halted its slide with a modest recovery, though consumer demand remained subdued.

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Global salmon markets showed clear regional divergence ahead of June. China's market ended weeks of consecutive declines, with prices rebounding and importers returning to profitability; Norwegian salmon spot prices saw a slight pullback; the US market strengthened again; and the Scottish market halted its decline and rebounded, though consumer performance remained lackluster.

Guangzhou Market Ends Consecutive Declines

China's market has become one of the few regions showing signs of recovery recently. Over the past few weeks, large-sized Norwegian salmon arrived in concentrated volumes, combined with slow post-holiday consumption recovery, putting sustained pressure on market prices, with many importers suffering consecutive losses. In week 22, Guangzhou market prices began to recover.

According to the latest market assessment, the price of 5-6 kg Norwegian Atlantic salmon (head-off, gutted) rose to 58 yuan/kg, equivalent to about 8.18 USD/kg. Guangzhou importers said this round of increase is more of a price correction. The previous weeks of consecutive declines had pushed some companies' selling prices below import costs, and the market has now returned to profitability, with profits of about 2 yuan per kg.

Market participants believe the price rebound does not mean demand has suddenly surged, but rather that the market is gradually returning to a normal profit range after a sustained decline.

Norwegian Spot Market Sees Slight Pullback

Unlike China's market rebound, the Norwegian spot market has cooled slightly. On May 29, several European market participants said prices for Norwegian salmon delivered in week 23 (June 1-7) fell by several euro cents compared with the previous week.

European processing companies' purchase prices are currently mainly concentrated between 7.00 and 7.15 EUR/kg, below the previous week's transaction level of 7.15 to 7.25 EUR/kg. Market participants said prices for sizes above 6 kg performed slightly stronger than medium-sized products, and the price gap between 4-5 kg and 5-6 kg sizes has narrowed significantly.

US Market Strengthens Again

The US market showed a different trend. In week 22, Norwegian salmon ended several consecutive weeks of weakness in the US wholesale market, with fresh fillet prices rising again. Prices for 2-3 lb, 3-4 lb and 4-5 lb fillets all rose by about 0.10 USD/lb, and whole fish prices were also raised in tandem.

However, industry participants generally believe this round of increases is more like a price structure adjustment rather than the start of a new upward trend. Overall demand in the US market remained stable after entering June, but supply conditions differed among product sizes, with some sizes still tight and others relatively ample.

Chile Supply Growth Remains Limited

Aquabench data shows that as of the end of April, Chile's total salmon biomass was 434,600 tonnes, down 4.9% year-on-year. Average fish weight fell to 2.35 kg, down 3.3% year-on-year; the number of fish in stock fell to 184.7 million, down 1.9% year-on-year.

Chile's feed consumption in the same period fell to 93,300 tonnes, down 2% year-on-year. Theodor Rosenberg, an analyst at research firm Fearney Securities, said this reflects slightly weaker growing conditions in farming areas compared with last year. Chile's salmon harvest in April reached 61,700 tonnes, up 3% year-on-year. The growth mainly came from an increase in the number of harvested fish, while the average harvest size fell 1.6% year-on-year to about 5 kg.

Smolt stocking data also showed no obvious growth. Chile stocked about 16 million smolts in April, down 2% year-on-year.

Brazilian Market Prices Fall Notably

Brazil's market saw the most obvious price adjustment this week. The previous week, affected by Chile's Navy Day holiday, reduced shipments pushed prices up. As processing and logistics returned to normal and supply increased again, Chile's export prices to Brazil fell notably in week 22.

Brazil is one of Chile's most important export markets for salmon, with annual trade exceeding 800 million USD, and local price changes have a significant impact on Chilean exporters.

Scottish Prices Recover but Consumption Remains Weak

The Scottish market ended two consecutive weeks of declines. Market data shows Scottish salmon prices rose again in week 22. UK buyers said premium 5-6 kg products traded at about 6.50 GBP/kg, sizes above 6 kg at about 6.20 GBP/kg, and some products were quoted above 8 GBP/kg.

The price increase did not improve end-consumer consumption. UK processing companies said purchases by smoked product processors declined, foodservice channel demand remained weak, and overall market transactions were relatively flat.

Data from France's Rungis market shows that Label Rouge-certified Scottish salmon prices fell back to 9.50 EUR/kg, but remained significantly higher than ordinary-grade products. Ordinary-grade Scottish salmon prices were about 8.20 EUR/kg.

After entering June, the global salmon market is forming a new regional price landscape. China's market has ended its consecutive correction, the US market has turned stronger again, the European spot market has entered an adjustment phase, Chile's supply growth remains limited, and price linkages between different markets are weakening.