Orders Return, but Fish Are Not Enough! Price Divergence for Tilapia in Southern China Intensifies!

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Orders Return, but Fish Are Not Enough! Price Divergence for Tilapia in Southern China Intensifies!

In the 24th week of 2025 (June 9 to 15), price trends in China's main tilapia (罗非鱼) producing areas in southern China showed clear divergence, presenting a situation of "Guangdong down, Guangxi up, Hainan stable." Although growth in orders from the U.S. market provided some boost to exports, structural pressure on the supply side is still intensifying.

Guangxi Prices Rise, Guangdong Edges Down

In Guangxi, the purchase price for tilapia in the 500-800 gram specification rose this week to 8.6 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan from the previous week. Raw fish supply in the region has recently been tight, and some processing plants have actively raised procurement prices to secure resources. By contrast, the price for fish of the same specification in Guangdong edged down 0.1 yuan to 8.4 yuan/kg, where local raw material supply is sufficient and the market reaction has been stable. Prices in Hainan remained at 8.2 yuan/kg, with no fluctuation seen.

A person in charge of an export enterprise in Hainan said that U.S. buyers are placing orders actively, driving up factories' demand for raw materials, with procurement volumes clearly increasing. In Guangdong, however, because inventories and fish sources are relatively ample, enterprises did not choose to raise prices in tandem.

Concentrated Harvesting Approaches, Contradiction in Fry Supply and Demand Emerges

As temperatures rise in southern China, tilapia has entered a rapid growth period, and farmers are successively preparing for concentrated harvesting. Industry feedback says that current adult fish prices can still cover farming costs, but tight fry supply has become a new focus.

Several fry enterprises, including Guangdong Haimao, said that order scheduling is currently tight, and in some areas there is even a phenomenon of "panic buying" of fry. Insufficient fry sources not only limits the expansion of farming scale, but may also push up subsequent costs and affect the pace of the industry chain.

Export and Capacity in a Tug of War, Short-Term Game Continues

Processing enterprises generally face the coexistence of recovering export orders and difficulty in organizing raw materials. On the one hand, purchasing enthusiasm in the U.S. market has picked up, stimulating factories to expand production scheduling plans; on the other hand, tight raw fish and fry resources have increased the complexity of enterprise operations.

The southern market is still in a state of supply-demand game, and price changes are significantly affected by regional differences and farming rhythms. The industry calls for increasing fry research and development and capacity investment while ensuring current export tasks, to ease structural supply bottlenecks and ensure the stable operation of the industry chain.

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