Norwegian salmon spot prices rebound while Chinese wholesale prices continue to fall
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Spot prices for farmed Atlantic salmon (大西洋鲑) in Norway moved higher again for the Week 25 delivery window. On June 12, market quotations showed that the FCA Oslo assessment price for fresh head-on gutted Norwegian salmon was raised, with the main 3–6 kg size up by about NOK 8/kg to NOK 60.53/kg, equivalent to about USD 6.01/kg. The price collection time was Friday of Week 24, with a delivery period of June 15 to 21.
This rebound mainly came from tight supply of large-sized fish. Norwegian farming companies in northern Norway reported that on June 12, sizes above 5 kg were harder to purchase, and available market resources were mainly concentrated in the 2–4 kg range. Prices across the 3–6 kg sizes remained relatively close, but sizes above 6 kg rose more noticeably, with large fish regaining a premium. The recent weakening of the Norwegian krone also improved Norwegian exporters' quotation room to a certain extent.
Prices paid by European processors did not fully rise in tandem. Some European processors said that in Week 24, the DDP price for 3–6 kg Norwegian salmon delivered to continental Europe was about EUR 6.40–6.65/kg, below EUR 6.65–6.70/kg the previous week. Another processing company gave a Week 25 range of EUR 6.50–6.70/kg, while another company purchasing high-quality fish from northern Norway quoted EUR 6.70–6.80/kg. The European market's reaction to differences in size and quality has clearly intensified.
The US market did not fully follow fluctuations in the Norwegian place of origin. In Week 24, falling Norwegian spot prices and an increase in small-sized fish had pushed down some whole-fish prices in the US wholesale market, but Norwegian fresh fillet prices remained basically stable. Affected by tariffs, air freight and import volume restrictions, the US market's transmission of declines in the Norwegian place of origin was incomplete. Larger-sized whole fish, affected by expectations of increased summer harvest volumes, had weaker price support than fillet products.
The French market performed more steadily. In Week 24, Norwegian salmon prices at the Paris Rungis wholesale market remained firm and did not clearly follow the decline in Norwegian spot prices. The French market reacts more slowly to changes in international spot prices, and channel inventories, foodservice demand and the high-end retail price system continued to support wholesale quotations.
The Chinese market, by contrast, showed a clear decline. In Week 24, wholesale prices for fresh head-on gutted Norwegian salmon in the Guangzhou market fell, with the 5–6 kg size down more than 12% week on week, while the decline for large-sized fish was slightly smaller. Importers said that fresh fish arrivals had recently been concentrated, market inventory pressure had risen, and some traders were forced to dispose of old stock at a discount. One Guangzhou importer said that on that day prices for both Norwegian and Faroese fish fell by about RMB 10/kg, and that concentrated arrivals of large-sized new cargo in recent weeks had clearly weighed on spot prices.
Chilean salmon continued to weaken in the US market. In Week 24, prices for the main sizes of Chilean fresh salmon fillets in the US wholesale market generally fell by USD 0.35/lb. The supply disruption previously caused by Chile's "Navy Day" holiday had faded, and logistics and supply had returned to normal. Supply of small-sized 2–3 lb fillets was ample, and the premium for 3–4 lb fillets narrowed; large-sized fish remained relatively scarce and maintained a certain premium in the US and export markets.
Prices for Chilean salmon shipped to Brazil showed a slight rebound. Brazil is an important export market for Chilean salmon, with annual trade exceeding USD 800 million. In Week 24, the price index for Chilean salmon shipped to Brazil rose for the first time in a month, mainly driven by a recovery in prices for smaller sizes. The index uses Chilean FOB, ex-factory and Puerto Montt prices as references and reflects changes in Chilean suppliers' quotations to the Brazilian market.
Scottish salmon prices once again fell back to near their lows for the year. In Week 24, the price of Scottish standard-grade 3–6 kg fish delivered to processing plants was below the level of the same period in previous years. UK buyers said that superior-grade 5–6 kg and above-6 kg Scottish salmon fell during the week to about GBP 5.90/kg and GBP 6.00/kg respectively, down more than GBP 0.50/kg from earlier levels. In the French Rungis market, the price of Scottish Label Rouge certified fish remained at EUR 9.50/kg, while standard-grade Scottish salmon was about EUR 8.20/kg.
In Week 25, the rebound in Norwegian place-of-origin spot prices contrasted with falling Chinese wholesale prices. The Norwegian market was driven by a shortage of large-sized fish, US fillet prices were supported by freight and tariffs, French wholesale prices remained stable, and the Guangzhou market in China continued to decline under the impact of concentrated arrivals and inventory pressure. Weakening Scottish prices and declines in the Chilean US market also made the pace of global salmon price changes more clearly different across regions.
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