Russian H&G Alaska pollock China CFR stays flat at high level in week 40 as market eyes US fillet supply gap

The assessed price of Russian-origin head-and-gutted (H&G) Alaska pollock (狭鳕) on a China CFR basis held at its year-high in week 40, flat week on week. Frozen H&G Alaska pollock of the 25+ size was the main China-imported whitefish item that did not track the declines in Atlantic cod (真鳕) and haddock (黑线鳕) during the week. The latest set of actual figures recorded by domestic weekly price monitoring is as of September 24: Russian CFR Bering Sea product was quoted at USD 2,435/tonne, while Okhotsk Sea product at the Dalian and Qingdao ports was quoted at RMB 17,600/tonne.

Looking back along the curve, the upward move has been continuous. On September 3, Bering Sea product fell back to USD 2,410/tonne from a high of USD 2,570/tonne around August 20; it was then raised week by week — USD 2,410/tonne on September 10, USD 2,420/tonne on September 17, and USD 2,435/tonne on September 24, a cumulative increase of USD 25 over three weeks. The USD quote for Okhotsk Sea product stayed at USD 2,300/tonne over the same period, and by September 24 had shifted to no USD offer, with the price centre of gravity concentrating further on Bering Sea product; the RMB price for Okhotsk Sea product in Dalian and Qingdao, meanwhile, has stayed unchanged at RMB 17,600/tonne since September 10.

The wholesale end followed modestly in the same week. On September 24, the wholesale price of 22 kg headless Alaska pollock was RMB 390 in Shenyang, RMB 390 to 400 in Beijing, RMB 395 to 400 in Zhengzhou, and in Chongqing was cut to RMB 400 to 405 from RMB 405 to 410 the previous week.

Spot prices in the Russian domestic market also moved higher in tandem. In early September, frozen fish rail freight from Vladivostok to Moscow was RUB 32 to 36 per kg; the Russian domestic wholesale price of Alaska pollock was RUB 207/kg, up 3.5% week on week, equivalent to USD 2.4/kg.

Alongside the price stability, supply to China is increasing. The push behind the flow of goods is pointed at the price itself — the strong price level is attracting cargoes to be concentrated toward China. The market is also watching the fillet supply gap on the US side: the United States is one of the main origins of Alaska pollock fillets, and the tightness or looseness of its raw material and finished product supply will be transmitted through China's secondary processing segment to global fillet quotes.

On the Russian side, catching and fleet investment gave different signals in the same week. On the catching side, as of September 28, Russia's national catch was 3,672,200 tonnes, of which the Far East basin accounted for 2,907,100 tonnes, with Alaska pollock at 1,835,400 tonnes, the largest share of the Far East basin; Pacific herring was 542,600 tonnes, an increase of 138,600 tonnes compared with 2025. On the investment side, the Russian Fishery Company (RFC) abandoned construction plans for its last two frozen trawlers for Alaska pollock and herring due to rising costs, with Admiralty Shipyard as the partner.

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture approved a 2027 total allowable catch (TAC) for Alaska pollock of 2,356,000 tonnes on September 7, down 2.7% from 2026 and a reduction of 66,200 tonnes. Russia expects the actual catch decline to be between 3% and 5%, slightly larger than the TAC cut, depending on how regular quotas are implemented.

As of August 31, Russia's cumulative Alaska pollock landings were 1,664,300 tonnes, 29,300 tonnes higher than 1,635,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025; landings in the week of August 25 to 31 were 60,800 tonnes, the third consecutive week above 60,000 tonnes. The increase was concentrated in a single company — Gidrostroy, the largest quota holder, caught 419,953 tonnes as of August, up 26.5% year on year, an increase of 88,039 tonnes; over the same period Russia's total Alaska pollock increase was 93,839 tonnes, making the company the largest source of the increase.

Quota-side moves unfolded at the same time. Russia's crab quotas will be auctioned starting in October with investment obligations, covering the Far East and Northern basins. The thresholds for both new fleet construction and quota acquisition are being raised in tandem.

The quota balance in the Okhotsk Sea is on the large side. At the end of August, the remaining uncaught quota in the three main fishing areas of that sea was about 243,000 tonnes, versus about 145,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025, about 98,000 tonnes higher year on year, an increase of 68%. Some industry players said the remaining quota is too large to be fully caught within the year; many vessels need to go into shipyards for repairs and will not return to the fishing grounds until late November or December.

From January to August 2026, China imported 470,000 tonnes of Russian Alaska pollock raw material, an increase of 90,000 tonnes from the same period of 2025.

In the same section as Alaska pollock is the opposite trend in Atlantic cod and haddock. In the same week, prices for H&G Atlantic cod from Russian origins placed on the EU sanctions list or without EU-approved approval numbers moved downward, dragging haddock weaker in tandem. All Russian-origin, all H&G, all on a China CFR basis, Alaska pollock and Atlantic cod moved in opposite directions in week 40.

US Alaska pollock B-season raw material and fillet output statistics, as well as the pace at which Chinese processing plants resume work after the National Day holiday, both fall in October. Whether the CFR assessment price for the 25+ size can hold its current position will get its first point of comparison from the week 41 price records.