New Tuna Market Developments: Global Tuna Market Divergence Intensifies; EU "Vision 2040" Sparks Industry Discussion; Peru and Ecuador Cooperate to Strengthen Tuna Fishing Regulation

01. Global Tuna Market Divergence Intensifies: Tight Tropical Tuna Supply, Rising Demand for Farmed Bluefin Tuna

In late October 2026, the global tuna market showed clear divergence. On the one hand, tropical tuna catches were tight, and combined with seasonal fishing closures, raw material prices for canning remained high; on the other hand, bluefin tuna farming operations in the Mediterranean, Australia and elsewhere entered their seasonal harvest phase to meet demand from the Japanese sashimi market. Rising raw material costs and high-end consumer market demand moved in parallel, driving differentiated trends across tuna species and segments of the supply chain.

Raw material procurement costs for canning remain the focus of current market attention. Bangkok, Thailand, an important global trading hub for skipjack tuna raw material, has recently seen skipjack quotes rise to the USD 2,300–2,400/tonne range, highlighting the cost pressure on processors amid tight supply. Skipjack prices in the Manta market of Ecuador are likewise supported by supply and purchasing demand. After the seasonal fishing closure ended, some processors began restocking to ensure fulfillment of export orders. However, high raw material prices continue to squeeze processing margins, with particular pressure on processors that rely on frozen cooked skipjack loins.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific purse seine fleet is about to enter its second seasonal fishing closure. Under the rules of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC), the applicable fleet baseline closure period runs from 9 November 2026 to 11 January 2027, lasting 64 days, and some vessels will be subject to additional closure controls. The new closure arrangement will affect the pace of subsequent fishing and raw material supply.

In the high-value fresh and frozen tuna market, species, size grade, fishing method and product form are the core pricing factors. Export-grade whole yellowfin tuna in General Santos, the Philippines, and in Bitung and Bali, Indonesia, is quoted at around USD 5,250–5,650/tonne. The processing raw material purchase price in General Santos is around PHP 130–145/kg, equivalent to USD 2.26–2.52/kg. In the Japanese market, bigeye tuna frozen at ultra-low temperatures of minus 60°C is quoted at around JPY 1,800–3,200/kg. The Toyosu Central Wholesale Market in Tokyo covers fresh and frozen products and includes auction, negotiated transaction and other channels, with clear price spreads among species.

At the same time, bluefin tuna farms in the Mediterranean are increasing high-value sashimi exports to Japan. Malta, Spain, Tunisia and Türkiye all have operations in this sector, with farmed tuna mainly supplying sashimi and other high-end raw consumption channels. Compared with canning raw material, such products place greater emphasis on fish quality, fat deposition and size consistency, and their price performance is also affected by end-consumer demand. The industry quote for European sashimi-grade net fillets is EUR 26.50–34.50/kg, while gilled and gutted (GG) bluefin tuna shipped to Japan is quoted at JPY 3,500–4,800/kg, and imported live farmed bluefin tuna in Japan's terminal wholesale market is quoted at JPY 4,200–6,800/kg. Australia's southern bluefin tuna industry is based on wild capture, sea-cage farming and exports, with Japan as its core export market.

02. EU "Vision 2040" Sparks Industry Discussion; Policy Reform and Raw Material Security in Focus

Recently, the European Commission released its "Vision 2040" for fisheries and aquaculture, setting the direction for the industry over the next 15 years and focusing on three main areas: food security, sustainable use of resources and industry competitiveness. However, this vision has not won unanimous recognition from the European fishing industry. The European fishing organization Europêche expressed disappointment that the Commission did not commit to revising the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), while Seafood Europe, the European fish processing and trade association, and the Spanish seafood industry organization Anfaco-Cytma focused on raw material supply security, trade conditions and processing industry competitiveness.

Europêche stated that the last comprehensive reform of the Common Fisheries Policy was in 2013, and the current framework is hard-pressed to fully address the multiple challenges posed by climate change, the geopolitical situation and the energy crisis. The organization focuses on the landing obligation, the EU CATCH system and the difficulties in implementing catch tolerance rules, and calls on the EU to adjust rules to align with the realities of fishing operations and supply chain management. The organization has previously submitted relevant proposals to the European Commission. Europêche President Javier Garat said that without reform of the Common Fisheries Policy and supporting detailed rules, the "Vision 2040" will be hard-pressed to effectively respond to the industry's urgent problems.

By contrast, Seafood Europe is more focused on raw material supply and processing industry competitiveness. The association noted that raw material costs account for about 71% of production costs in the processing industry, and that international raw material supply, energy prices, trade terms and regulatory requirements all significantly affect business operations. The association hopes that when EU regulators implement the "Vision 2040," they will take these pressures into policy consideration, especially given the current unstable geopolitical situation, rebounding inflation and high energy costs. At the same time, the association suggested that the EU establish a dedicated cross-departmental working mechanism to assess processing competitiveness and raw material supply security, evaluate the comprehensive impact of policies on the supply chain, and reduce the additional burden on companies from overlapping policies.

Anfaco-Cytma further proposed that trade agreements between the EU and non-EU economies should balance the principle of reciprocity with fair competition, and that canned tuna should be listed as a sensitive product in free trade negotiations. The organization believes the EU needs to find a balance between trade openness and protection of domestic processing industries to avoid European companies being placed at a disadvantage in raw material access, costs and market access; it also stressed that autonomous tariff quotas (ATQs) are an important tool for ensuring raw material supply for processing companies. The organization also called on the EU to continuously improve measures to combat illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, and to comprehensively advance the implementation and international application of the CATCH system to ensure that fishery products entering the EU market are subject to unified and effective regulation.

03. Peru and Ecuador Cooperate to Strengthen Tuna Fishing Regulation

According to Peru's Ministry of Production, Peru and Ecuador recently signed a fisheries memorandum of understanding, finalizing 22 cooperation measures to strengthen the prevention and control of illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing and advance the sustainable management of shared fishery resources.

Under the agreement, the two sides will cooperate on port state measures, sharing of fisheries enforcement information, vessel satellite monitoring and catch traceability, promote interconnection of satellite monitoring systems, and jointly verify fishing certificates and landing declarations. The memorandum also covers the scientific management of dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) and will coordinate with regional fisheries organizations such as the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC).

The 2026–2027 action plan developed by the two sides lists tuna regulation as a priority, including strengthening satellite tracking of foreign-flagged tuna fishing vessels, verification at the tuna landing stage, and coordinated implementation of regulatory measures for relevant protected species.