Ecuadorian White Shrimp Specification Price Spread Distorted: Large-Size Premium Inflated by 0.5 USD, Post-Fishery Expo Price Slashing May Be Coming!

The Qingdao Fishery Expo opens on October 28, and Ecuadorian factories are releasing prices early to promote sales, hoping to lock in domestic orders ahead of competitors, yet market transactions remain lackluster, with buyers showing strong wait-and-see sentiment. Behind this pre-expo maneuvering, four overlapping contradictions—origin power supply, harvest pace, specification structure, and domestic inventory—are stacking up, posing considerable downside risk ahead.

In Week 43 (October 16–22), the average export price of Ecuadorian white shrimp (HOSO) fell 0.10 USD/kg week-on-week across all specifications: 20-30 at 3.60 USD/kg, 30/40 at 3.20 USD/kg, 40/50 at 2.60 USD/kg, and both 50/60 and 60/70 at 2.20 USD/kg, with some specifications already below historical lows. Compared with Week 37 in early September, the 30/40, 40/50, and 50/60 specifications have cumulatively fallen 0.10, 0.10, and 0.40 USD/kg respectively, with small and medium specifications declining more deeply. The price gaps between adjacent specifications have been noticeably widened—20-30 is about 0.4 USD higher than 30-40, and 30-40 is about 0.6 USD higher than 40-50, averaging about 0.5 USD, whereas the industry's long-term central price gap between adjacent specifications is about 0.3 USD. The current premium on large specifications is clearly too high.

The root of the price spread lies in Ecuador. Persistent local power shortages have disrupted processing plant operating schedules, limited their willingness to purchase shrimp, and constrained pond-side absorption capacity, keeping farm-gate prices under continuous pressure. The Ecuadorian National Chamber of Aquaculture (CNA) warned on October 14 that rising electricity costs and power outages have affected companies' normal operations. With slow shrimp purchasing and slow processing, farmers can only leave shrimp in ponds, where they continue to grow, causing large-size supply such as 20/30 and 30/40 to accumulate. This is not deliberate farming of larger shrimp but a specification structure shift forced by processing bottlenecks.

As the origin pushes out more large sizes, the domestic inventory structure becomes misaligned accordingly. Old-date inventory held by ports and distributors is concentrated in large specifications 20/30 and 30/40, while the mainstay of terminal sales is the cheaper small and medium specifications 40/50 and 50/60. Large specifications are quoted high, weakly accepted by the market, and slow to clear, while small and medium specifications circulate smoothly and are the current hot sellers. With inventory disconnected from hot-selling goods, buyers naturally are unwilling to take heavy positions early—this is also the direct reason why factory promotions have yielded lackluster transactions, with most people waiting to see the factories' bottom line at the Fishery Expo.

The Qingdao Fishery Expo is a concentrated order-taking window for Ecuadorian factories and domestic buyers, and a watershed for short-term market conditions. If sufficient firm orders are secured at the expo, quotes are expected to stabilize and the price spread to repair slowly; if orders fall short of expectations, earlier promotions will have failed, and factories may cut prices across the board after the expo to recover cash flow or trade price for volume, with large specifications hit first. Many importers and wholesalers are therefore watching more and acting less, refraining from locking in long-term orders early.

Taking a longer cycle, from now to May next year, Ecuador's shrimp production will gradually expand, supply pressure will continue to rise, and increased production is the fundamental mainline. Data from the Central Bank of Ecuador show that from January to August 2026, Ecuador's shrimp exports reached 1.1 million tons, up 19.8% year-on-year, with export value of 6.561 billion USD, up 18% year-on-year—volume growing faster than value. Banquets, gift boxes, and high-end channels are recovering, bringing periodic demand expectations for large specifications, and many industry participants are optimistic about subsequent opportunities in large sizes, but demand expectations do not equal price increases. In a production-increase cycle, the strength of demand recovery may not be enough to absorb the continuous stream of new supply; it is not uncommon for large specifications to be favored while prices keep declining, and the risk of sustained price cutting should be guarded against.

With power disruptions, pond holding forcing larger shrimp, price spread imbalance, and inventory mismatch intertwined, the Ecuadorian shrimp market has entered a high-volatility window. The Fishery Expo is not the end point of this round of pricing but the starting point of a new round.