Japan's Surimi Costs Spiral Out of Control as Companies Collectively Raise September Shipment Prices
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Japanese surimi product manufacturers are pushing raw material pressure toward the end market. Since June, Nissui, Kibun Foods, Umios, Issei Kamaboko and several other Japanese companies have successively announced price increases, with implementation concentrated after September 1 deliveries. The increases range from 3% to 20%, covering core surimi products such as chikuwa, imitation crab sticks, fish sausages and kamaboko.
This round of price increases comes against the backdrop of temporarily stable wholesale prices for Alaska pollock surimi in the Japanese market. In June, most Alaska pollock surimi circulating in the Japanese market was still U.S. A-season material that began arriving in March, and wholesale prices were largely unchanged. On the surface, spot prices have not risen significantly, but processors have already begun repricing for autumn shipments, because although the U.S. Alaska pollock B-season has already opened, producers have so far not formally released B-season surimi quotes to Japan.
Japan is one of the world's largest markets for Alaska pollock surimi consumption, and domestic sales are usually arranged separately around the U.S. Alaska A-season and B-season. After pricing at the start of the season, intra-season price fluctuations are relatively limited. The Japanese market is still digesting A-season supply, and price pressure is gradually entering the finished-product stage through small-lot purchases and small and medium-sized processors. A major importer in Tokyo, Japan, said that the A-season raw material price increase has just begun to pass through to small and medium-sized processors, and some companies are already preparing to raise prices for autumn finished products.
Company price increases land in quick succession
Nissui announced on June 1 that, effective with September 1 deliveries, it will raise prices for surimi products such as chikuwa, imitation crab sticks and fish sausages by 5% to 17%. Kibun Foods announced on June 16 that it will raise prices on 567 products by 3% to 20%. Umios, formerly Maruha Nichiro, announced on June 18 that, effective with September 1 deliveries, it will raise shipment prices for surimi products such as fish sausages and chikuwa by 5% to 18%. Issei Kamaboko also announced an increase of 5% to 15%, effective with September 1 deliveries.
The Japan Kamaboko Association issued an emergency statement on June 1, warning that surimi products may face a supply crisis. The pressures listed by the association include fuel shortages in India and Southeast Asia, weak fishing, the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil supply, declining Alaska pollock surimi production in the A-season, reduced Russian surimi supply, and rising prices for petroleum-based packaging materials. The association called on the Japanese government to strengthen international coordination and raw material procurement measures to avoid shortages or interruptions in frozen surimi imports.
U.S. B-season quotes remain delayed
The fact that U.S. producers have not yet submitted formal B-season Alaska pollock surimi quotes to Japan is the most sensitive variable in the current Japanese market. The U.S. Alaska B-season pollock fishery has opened, but there is still no clear price in the Japanese market. Some U.S. producers say that PBO fillets are in strong demand in the U.S. and European markets, and Alaska pollock surimi prices should also rise, but no formal quotes have yet formed for Japan.
There has been some discussion in the market that A-grade Alaska pollock surimi CFR Japan prices could reach 700 yen/kg. Several market participants believe there is currently no actual quote supporting this level, and that it is closer to market speculation. U.S. producers are still evaluating the returns of different products, and the capacity of PBO fillets and H\&G Alaska pollock products to absorb raw materials is squeezing the bargaining space for surimi production.
Russian surimi is also unlikely to fill Japan's gap. In the past few years, Russian surimi first expanded sales in China, then entered South Korea and Japan. Russian surimi production in 2026 is expected to be below the original plan, and some companies are diverting more Alaska pollock raw material to PBO fillets and H\&G products, reducing surimi output. Japan could originally use Russian supply to buffer tightening U.S. supply, but this supplementary space is now narrowing.
Import prices continue to rise
From January to April 2026, Japan imported 24,476 tonnes of frozen Alaska pollock surimi, down 2% year on year; the average import price rose 3% to 422 yen/kg, 40 yen/kg higher than the same period last year. The United States remained Japan's largest supplier, supplying 11,606 tonnes from January to April, down 13% year on year; Russia supplied 7,816 tonnes, down 25% year on year. Russia's share of Japan's Alaska pollock surimi imports rose from 21% in the same period last year to 32%, but supply volumes themselves continued to decline.
The average import price of U.S. Alaska pollock surimi from January to April was 431 yen/kg, up 10% year on year; the average import price of Russian Alaska pollock surimi was 403 yen/kg, up 15% year on year. The price gap between U.S. and Russian raw materials narrowed to about 28 yen/kg. In April alone, Japan imported 8,751 tonnes of Alaska pollock surimi, down 31% year on year; the United States supplied 6,956 tonnes, down 29% year on year; Russia supplied 1,786 tonnes, down 38% year on year. The average import price in April rose 3% to 422 yen/kg, with U.S. product at about 427 yen/kg and Russian product at about 403 yen/kg.
The procurement landscape in East Asia is changing. From January to April, the three major markets of Japan, China and South Korea together imported 46,970 tonnes of U.S. and Russian Alaska pollock surimi. Of this, Russian product accounted for 24,996 tonnes, exceeding the U.S. total of 21,974 tonnes and reaching a combined share of 53% in the three markets. Russian surimi accounted for as much as 94% of China's market, 53% of South Korea's and 32% of Japan's. China and South Korea are more dependent on Russian supply, while Japan still mainly relies on U.S. Alaska pollock surimi.
Japan's procurement difficulty is therefore amplified. Russian surimi already holds a large share in China and South Korea, and when Japan seeks additional Russian supply, its options are limited. U.S. producers are also allocating more raw material to PBO fillets and H\&G products, leaving Japanese surimi companies caught between tightening U.S. supply, insufficient Russian substitution and high-priced tropical surimi.
Tropical surimi runs at high prices
From January to April, Japan imported 4,358 tonnes of itoyori surimi, down 4% year on year; the average import price rose 6% to 462 yen/kg, 40 yen/kg higher than the average price of Alaska pollock surimi in the same period. Itoyori is regarded as a high-end variety among tropical surimi, and its high price prevents it from fully replacing the cost advantage of Alaska pollock surimi.
India remained Japan's largest supplier of itoyori surimi, supplying 1,812 tonnes from January to April, up 10% year on year; Thailand supplied 920 tonnes, down 16% year on year; Vietnam supplied 879 tonnes, down 37% year on year; Pakistan supplied 606 tonnes, down 26% year on year. Japan's procurement structure is shifting from past reliance on Thailand to a focus on India. In April alone, Japan imported 1,317 tonnes of itoyori surimi, up 7% year on year, and the average import price rose 9% to 474 yen/kg. India supplied 749 tonnes that month, accounting for 57% of Japan's total itoyori imports, up 61% year on year; Thailand fell 14% to 161 tonnes, and Vietnam fell 43% to 245 tonnes.
Hokkaido output falls to a low level
Japan's domestic surimi production has likewise provided no support. Data from the Japan National Surimi Association show that Hokkaido Alaska pollock surimi production in April fell 68.7% year on year to only 266 tonnes. In March, it had briefly recovered to 3,309 tonnes due to a recovery in catches, but key fishing grounds such as Kushiro failed to form normally, and April output quickly fell back. Hokke surimi has gone seven consecutive months without production.
Including other species, Japan's total surimi production in April fell 69.0% year on year to only 276 tonnes. Shipments fell 54.6% to 309 tonnes, but remained higher than production, causing month-end inventories to continue declining to 560 tonnes, down 45.4% year on year and down 593 tonnes from the end of March. The weak domestic surimi supply in Japan makes changes in imported raw material prices have a more direct impact on processors.
Inventories slightly stable, but low-level pressure remains
Data from Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries show that at the end of April, Japan's frozen surimi inventories, including Alaska pollock and other species, stood at 47,272 tonnes, down 1.5% year on year. Total inventories were below 50,000 tonnes for the fifth consecutive month. Alaska pollock surimi inventories were 28,504 tonnes, down 4% year on year, but up 1,705 tonnes from 26,799 tonnes at the end of February, ending the previous consecutive decline. Alaska pollock surimi inbound volume rose 1% year on year to 7,106 tonnes, while outbound volume rose 20% year on year to 5,401 tonnes.
Inventories of other surimi were 18,768 tonnes, up 2% year on year. Inbound volume fell 29% year on year to 4,273 tonnes, while outbound volume fell 2.8% year on year to 5,041 tonnes. Outbound volume exceeded inbound volume, indicating that inventories of other surimi are still being drawn down. Tropical surimi prices are relatively high, and restocking raw materials remains difficult, making it hard for companies to hedge Alaska pollock surimi pressure through large purchases of low-priced substitute raw materials.
End-market consumption cannot keep up with price increases
Japanese household spending on surimi products has not grown in tandem. Data from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications show that in April, household spending on surimi products was 689 yen per household, roughly flat year on year. This was already the second consecutive month of flat year-on-year spending. Among subcategories, spending on fried fish cakes rose 5% to 186 yen, and kamaboko rose 3% to 220 yen; chikuwa fell 5% to 174 yen, and other surimi products fell 5% to 109 yen.
Yet the price index continues to hit new highs. With 2020 as 100, the overall CPI for Japanese surimi products rose to 133.0 in April, compared with 131.7 in March. Kamaboko reached a record high of 135.1, and fried fish cakes rose to a record level of 130.8. Chikuwa edged down from 132.4 in March to 132.0, but remained at a historically high level. Overall surimi product prices were up 33% from 2020, kamaboko was up 35%, chikuwa was up 32%, and fried fish cakes were up 31%.
Finished-product output continued to decline. Data from the Japan Food Marketing Research and Information Center show that in April, Japan's surimi product output fell 5.5% year on year to 33,178 tonnes. The largest category, fried fish cakes, fell 1.8% to 11,551 tonnes; board kamaboko fell 13.6% to 2,521 tonnes; narutomaki and hanpen-type products fell 4.9% to 2,498 tonnes; packaged kamaboko fell 1.7% to 588 tonnes. Chikuwa was basically flat at 5,476 tonnes. Other surimi products were the only growing major category, rising 3.4% year on year to 10,544 tonnes.
Whether the September price increases can be absorbed by the market will still depend on end-market consumption. Japan's surimi industry has already shifted raw material, packaging and import cost pressure to finished-product shipment prices, but household spending has not grown significantly, and finished-product output is still declining. U.S. B-season Alaska pollock surimi quotes have not yet landed, Russian supply is unlikely to fill the gap, and tropical surimi from India and elsewhere remains at high levels. The September price increases by Japanese processors will directly enter retail and foodservice channels.
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