El Niño Warm Water and Nationwide Blackouts Deal Double Blow as Ecuador's Canned Tuna Industry Faces Raw Material Gap Nearing 90,000 Tonnes

Manta/Guayaquil—Ecuador's seafood processing and canning industry is concentrated in two industrial hubs: Manta in Manabí Province and Posorja in Guayas Province. In October 2026, these two industrial belts are simultaneously under pressure from raw material shortages and soaring electricity costs: abnormal water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific have depressed catch landings by the national fleet, while the nationwide power crisis has pushed up energy expenditures in the processing sector.

A technical report from the industrial fishing sector attributes the decline in domestic landings directly to water temperature anomalies associated with warming events in the Eastern Pacific and at the ocean surface and subsurface (El Niño/coastal warm water). The intrusion of warm water masses has suppressed upwelling mechanisms, reducing nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations along the Ecuadorian coast; as forage organisms leave the photic zone, and with positive water temperature anomalies at 44 meters depth reaching up to +5.4°C, tuna schools have either migrated south to higher-latitude waters or descended to deeper waters below the operating depth of Ecuador's purse-seine fleet.

Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), the main raw material for canned and cured product lines, has seen landings contract by 40% to 42%. Andrés Cuca, a director of the Ecuadorian Chamber of Tuna Processors and Industrialists (CEIPA), and sources at the National Fisheries Chamber (CNP) warn that the industry expects a supply gap approaching 90,000 tonnes by year-end, with annual catches falling from the usual 450,000 tonnes to about 360,000 tonnes.

The sharp contraction in landings has quickly driven up port raw material prices: brine-frozen whole skipjack has risen from a baseline level of USD 1,700/tonne to above USD 2,200/tonne.

To avoid halting value-added processing lines and to fulfill international delivery contracts, integrated canning plants have turned to compensatory raw material imports: factories are importing frozen pre-cooked cleaned tuna loins, as well as frozen whole tuna landed by third-flag vessels operating in fishing grounds outside the affected Eastern Pacific waters.

On trade data, according to statistics compiled by the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) and the CNP, from January to July 2026 exports of canned and prepared fish products totaled USD 1.0193 billion, a year-on-year contraction of 5.2% from USD 1.0756 billion in the same period of 2025; exports of pre-cooked tuna loins edged up 1% over the same period, totaling USD 209.3 million. Using thawed, pre-cooked, cleaned loins can reduce labor hours in the cutting and cleaning stages, but tariffs, cold-chain logistics and refrigerated container freight directly weigh on the net margin per carton of finished product.

Beyond the raw material shortage at the ports, Ecuador's production infrastructure has also been hit by a severe energy crisis, with medium-voltage industrial outages in major manufacturing zones lasting 48 to 72 hours continuously. To safeguard food safety standards, eliminate the risk of cold-chain breaks in cold storage, and keep retorts and can-seaming machinery running, integrated canning plants in Manta, Montecristi, Jaramijó and Posorja are operating on 100% self-supplied diesel thermal power generation.

Mónica Maldonado, executive director of CEIPA, noted that although the tuna processing fleet and industrial parks are equipped with emergency generators to ensure voltage stability, the continuous consumption of fuel has significantly raised processing costs per carton, weakening Ecuador's competitive position relative to Southeast Asian processors—particularly Thailand and Vietnam—in key markets such as the European Union and the United States.