Skipjack tuna prices hit 9-year high, El Niño expectations push market further upward!
On September 14, the 19th Infofish World Tuna Trade Conference (TUNA 2026) opened at the Shangri-La Hotel in Bangkok and runs through the 16th. It is jointly organized by Infofish, the Thai Department of Fisheries, the Thai Tuna Industry Association and other institutions, under the theme "Strengthening Global Tuna Industry Value Chain Collaboration, Blue Economy and Sustainability." Manuel Barange, Director of the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Division, delivered the keynote address, and about 40 exhibition booths were on display concurrently. The market judgment emerging on opening day was that raw material prices for skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) have reached a 9-year high, and El Niño expectations are providing support for further gains in the period ahead. Working backward from the 9-year high, the market last stood at this level around 2017.
Climate signals are the underlying logic of this round of expectations. Data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have been 0.5 to 0.9 degrees Celsius above the historical average for several consecutive months, and atmospheric indicators confirm that El Niño is tending to strengthen over the coming quarter; on June 10, Peru extended indefinitely the anchovy fishing ban north of 16 degrees south latitude, and the biological fishery conditions along the South American coast have already been reshaped by El Niño. Shrinking supply combined with high oil prices is where shipowners draw their confidence to hold prices firm.
Price levels across major processing centers are clearly diverging. Monitoring by Frozen Seafood Guide shows that in the first week of September, purchase prices quoted by small canneries in Bangkok were 1,600 USD/ton, while large processors, with fishing conditions in the Western and Central Pacific slightly improved, were still holding off; some skipjack transactions in Manta were concluded at 1,700 USD/ton (FOB), yellowfin tuna was quoted at 1,950 USD/ton, the 72-day fish aggregating device (FAD) closure has squeezed supply in the Eastern Pacific, and some supply was even shipped in from Dakar, Senegal to fill the gap; transactions in General Santos, Philippines, in August at one point approached 2,200 USD/ton; markets in the Indian Ocean and Europe pulled back, with skipjack transactions near 1,300 EUR/ton. The spread between Bangkok and Manta has widened to several hundred dollars, reflecting the mismatch between the procurement strategies of large processors and the spot demand of small canneries.
The contraction in catch volumes is the root cause of the price increase. After a record year in 2025, Papua New Guinea's skipjack landings in 2026 are down more than 40% year on year; the Western and Central Pacific has enforced a 45-day FAD ban since July 1, and although the annual meeting of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission shortened the 2026-2028 FAD closure in the Eastern Pacific from 72 days to 64 days, the supply gap there will be difficult to fill in the short term.
Pressure on the buyer side is also mounting. Since August 7, the United States has imposed a 19% tariff on Thai tuna products, with rates for Ecuador, Indonesia and Vietnam rising to 15%, 19% and 20% respectively; Thailand exported 121,000 tons of canned tuna to the United States in 2024, valued at 554 million USD, and exporters' profit margins have been sharply compressed. Caught between rising raw material costs and downstream price pressure, the spread between Bangkok and Manta has widened to several hundred dollars—an unavoidable contradiction in the second day's conference agenda item "Price Volatility and Future Competitiveness."
Whether a new industry consensus takes shape after the conference closes on September 16 will directly affect procurement pace and pricing direction across producing regions in the fourth quarter.