Oil Price Falls Back to $80, Yellowfin Tuna Remains Firm
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Yellowfin tuna (yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares) prices in Europe remained stable in June, with some market quotes slightly higher than the previous month. Brent crude fell back to about $80/barrel in mid-June, but did not immediately push down tuna raw material prices. What is really affecting the European yellowfin tuna market remains the recovery of whole round fish purchasing, slower fishing in some sea areas, and the fact that high marine fuel costs have not yet been fully passed through.
After the US-Iran conflict broke out in February, Middle East oil and gas exports were severely affected, and international oil prices rose rapidly over the past few months. On June 14, after Iran announced a preliminary ceasefire agreement with the United States, oil prices began to fall, with Brent crude dropping to its lowest level since early March. The oil price decline has not yet created obvious pressure in yellowfin tuna raw material trading, but if fuel costs continue to fall, it may later reduce freight and production costs for imported finished tuna products in the European market, with the price impact appearing with a lag.
Yellowfin tuna prices in Vigo, Spain, were broadly flat compared with May, with some quotes slightly higher. Local interest in purchasing whole round tuna has recovered somewhat; Spanish canneries had previously held relatively ample inventories, and purchasing activity began to pick up in June. A Vigo market source said most canneries have enough inventory to cover summer production, and there is currently no "saturated space" problem. Inventories in the Italian market remain at a relatively satisfactory level, with limited interest in additional whole round tuna purchases.
Judgements on subsequent supply in the European market are beginning to lean tight, mainly because fishing has slowed in some fishing areas. Fishing activity in the Indian Ocean has decelerated, and there is pressure for raw material availability to tighten in the coming weeks. If fishing continues to be weak, skipjack tuna (skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis) prices may rise in the short term. The European fleet is still unable to operate in Seychelles waters, and fishing performance in other areas is also not strong, with no obvious improvement likely at least before July.
Fuel prices are widening the gap between different ports. Marine diesel in Seychelles remains about $1,800/tonne because the local market is still digesting old inventories; marine diesel in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, has fallen below $1,200/tonne; Port Louis, Mauritius, is about $1,300/tonne and has also declined recently. The fall in fuel costs is beneficial to fleet operations, but tuna raw material quotes in Week 25 are still mainly determined by catch volumes and purchasing pace.
Fishing for yellowfin tuna under 40 kg in the Atlantic remains slow. In Week 25, some market sources said no yellowfin tuna quotes were issued in either the Indian Ocean or the Atlantic because current catch volumes are low. For European canneries and traders, short-term raw material availability is more direct than oil price changes.
The yellowfin tuna market in the tropical eastern Pacific is relatively stable, while skipjack tuna is under upward pressure due to raw material shortages. The ex-vessel price for 20-40 kg yellowfin tuna is broadly maintained at last month's level. Some market indications point to the lower end of the quote range, while others point to the upper end, or an increase of about $100/tonne on the original price. The ex-vessel price for "with origin" yellowfin tuna above 40 kg is about $1,900/tonne, with some quotes about $150/tonne lower on this basis.
Eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna fishing has weakened recently, and prices continue to receive support. Some market participants believe that regional yellowfin catch volumes have already weakened and are reinforcing expectations of higher prices. Data from the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission show that as of Week 24, eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna catch was 239,491 tonnes, up 10% year on year. Whether this change can continue in the coming weeks still depends on the commission's official catch data for the second quarter of this year.
The impact of the Philippine earthquake on the tuna supply chain remains. Most canneries have resumed operations, with limited damage to factories, but multiple storage facilities in General Santos City suffered losses due to collapsed racks. The local port is expected to be closed for 2 to 3 months, during which unloading operations will be shifted to Davao Port. The market does not currently expect major production disruptions, but some tuna loin shipments have already been delayed.
Raw material trading in Week 25 is still dominated by catch volumes. Yellowfin tuna quotes are missing in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic, prices in the eastern Pacific are stable, and port adjustments in the Philippines may slow shipments of some products; short-term purchasing still needs to focus on verifying loading ports, delivery dates and processing schedules.
The core contradiction in the yellowfin tuna market is currently not oil prices, but raw material supply. Spanish purchasing interest has recovered, fishing in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic is weak, eastern Pacific yellowfin remains stable, and skipjack tuna prices are supported by shortages. After Brent crude fell back to about $80/barrel, the improvement in fuel costs has not yet been reflected in yellowfin tuna raw material quotes.
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