Low-priced futures pressure the market as "Wangpai" white shrimp price drops 5 yuan
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Just as the Shanghai Fisheries Expo wrapped up, port white shrimp prices began to loosen. An industry weekly report released on September 4 showed that starting on the afternoon of August 31, prices for some brands began to pull back: Santa 30-40 and 40-50 counts saw limited fluctuation, with prices cut by about 2 yuan; Wangpai 30-40 and 40-50 counts were hit by the arrival of low-priced futures, falling by 4-5 yuan; large-board prices did not decline sharply, but low-priced futures cargo is arriving at ports one after another. The warmer atmosphere during the expo did not translate into orders, actual order volumes were limited, and current port supply is not tight.
Shipping pace has also slowed. In the first week of September, downstream less-than-truckload shipments in major Chinese cities were relatively weak, with market conditions worse than before the fisheries expo. Market attention is focused on the stocking window for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays; whether this batch of pre-holiday orders can pick up after mid-September will determine whether the current pullback is just a brief correction or the start of a new downward leg.
Port spot prices are pulling back, yet origin quotes are still rising. Ecuadorian head-on shell-on raw shrimp quotes were flat for two consecutive weeks in weeks 35 and 36, with all sizes holding at the levels seen before China suspended imports in early July; the transaction price for 30-count was 0.20 USD/kg higher than in June. On September 2, Ecuadorian exporters continued to raise CFR quotes to China, with 30-40 count head-on shell-on semi-IQF retail-pack products up 0.10 USD/kg week on week, extending the recovery momentum that began the previous week. Warmer interaction between suppliers and buyers at the Shanghai Fisheries Expo, plus China Customs restoring export eligibility for 8 Ecuadorian plants, were taken by exporters as turning-point signals. The restoration of eligibility follows July's regulatory storm: that month, 164 batches of white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei), totaling more than 3,056 tonnes, failed to clear entry, with sodium metabisulfite exceeding limits accounting for over 90%, and multiple plants subsequently entered qualification rectification and restoration procedures. From large-scale entry rejections to the gradual restoration of eligibility and then to consecutive rises in quotes to China, the impact of the regulatory storm is fading.
Production is still surging. From September 1 to 3, the 5th Global Shrimp Forum was held in Utrecht, the Netherlands, where unofficial data released showed that Ecuador's white shrimp exports rose 14%-15% year on year in the first half, with second-quarter volume nearing 450,000 tonnes, a record high, and July exports surging 49% year on year, breaking seasonal patterns, with full-year exports expected to reach 1.6 million tonnes. China accounts for about half of its export volume, and the United States may reach 360,000 tonnes this year. The signal from the forum was not reassuring: global shrimp supply is growing rapidly, while consumption growth has not kept pace. Sandro Coglitore, general manager of Ecuadorian exporter Omarsa, said bluntly that continued production increases mean no price rebound is in sight, that rising feed costs have already been passed through to the farming segment, and that companies have very limited room to absorb price increases. Santa Priscila Group plans to invest about 70 million USD to build a new processing plant, which will give the group a daily processing capacity of 1,500 tonnes of whole shrimp and annual capacity of more than 540,000 tonnes — production competition is still escalating.
Domestic pond prices rose across the board. In week 36 (August 31 to September 6), pond shrimp prices in major Chinese producing provinces rose broadly, with large sizes seeing the most prominent gains, supply of high-quality large-size shrimp becoming increasingly tight, and 60-count in Guangxi rising to its highest level since March. Leading feed company Haid Group expects that supply of commercial shrimp will remain relatively tight from late September through the period before the National Day holiday in October, and that shrimp prices are unlikely to fall back to year-earlier levels.
The gap between import data and market perception is widening. In the first quarter of this year, China's shrimp imports rose 25% year on year, and in the second quarter they rose 20%, with full-year volume expected to exceed 1 million tonnes; in the first half, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew only 1.3%. Wang Lu, director of the overseas business department at Youhe Group, said at the Global Shrimp Forum that looking at the data alone, imports are indeed increasing, but in conversations with importers, the market does not feel better. For port traders, this gap is felt more directly: low-priced futures arrive at port vessel after vessel, spot quotes are being pushed down, and holiday stocking has become the most tangible hope at hand.
Variables remain concentrated on the supply side. With the European summer holiday over, purchasing is about to truly pick up, El Niño-driven rainfall may weigh on Ecuadorian production in the coming weeks, and raw shrimp prices may enter an upward channel from late September to October. Origin price support and port pullbacks are now in a standoff; the transaction prices of the first batch of pre-holiday orders after mid-September will set the direction for this market cycle.
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