Can Chile overtake Norway as the world's top salmon producer? Industry says it could happen in as little as 4 to 8 years
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Chile's salmon industry is raising its ambitions again. With expectations of regulatory reform heating up and companies more willing to invest, some in the industry now believe Chile has a chance to overtake Norway within the next 4 to 8 years and become the world's largest salmon producer.
Chilean aquaculture industry consultant Skjalg Aabakken said recently that the Chilean salmon industry is in a phase that could see accelerated expansion. For many years the industry has been constrained by an outdated regulatory system, and now, as the policy direction changes, market expectations for industry growth have clearly risen.
Aabakken runs the consulting firm Aabakken Soft Landing & Innovation with his wife Pia Ibanez, mainly providing services to Nordic aquaculture companies looking to enter the Chilean market. Recently, the firm also held a seminar for 12 Norwegian suppliers considering entering Chile, with participants from the technology, equipment and services sectors. According to Aabakken, more and more companies are beginning to seriously assess opportunities in the Chilean market.
He believes that changes at the political level could be the key to opening up growth space for Chile's salmon industry. Aabakken said the new Chilean president wants to untie the "dead knot" that has long constrained the salmon industry's development, and that the existing regulatory framework itself is built on laws from decades ago and can no longer match today's technological conditions and industry needs.
In his view, Chile is moving toward a more simplified legal framework, and producers' willingness to invest in new technologies and sustainable development projects is also strengthening. Aabakken told IntraFish that companies now place noticeably greater emphasis on social and environmental responsibility, sustainability has become a topic the industry repeatedly stresses, and related investment will also be used to drive healthier growth.
At the policy level, Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast has listed aquaculture as a strategic industry and promised to remove bottlenecks constraining growth, with the goal aimed directly at becoming the world's largest salmon producer. DNB seafood analyst Dag Sletmo also mentioned that after the change of government, "renewed optimism" has emerged in Chile's salmon industry. The market generally expects that subsequent regulatory adjustments will be more pragmatic, focusing on simplifying the licensing process and strengthening coordination between departments.
Of course, real obstacles remain. Kast does not control Congress, which means that fully advancing aquaculture legislative reform will not be easy. However, many producers in the industry also believe that even without a complete legislative rewrite, administrative-level adjustments alone could bring meaningful changes.
In terms of production conditions, Chile still has plenty of room to rise. Fernando Villarroel, head of Mowi Chile, said in an interview with Salmon Expert that Chile has the geographical and environmental conditions to double salmon production, and the real question is how fast future growth can run.
This is not the first time Chile has come close to Norway. According to Kontali data, Chile briefly surpassed Norway's salmon harvest in 2001, but was overtaken again the following year. The infectious salmon anemia (ISA) crisis that broke out in 2007 dealt a heavy blow to the entire industry, which then took years to gradually recover.
In terms of current volume, Norway is still clearly ahead. Last year, Chile exported slightly more than 1 million tonnes of salmonid products, with an export value of close to NOK 69 billion; Norway's export volume reached 1.8 million tonnes, with an export value of close to NOK 132 billion.
However, Chile's presence in the global aquaculture industry is indeed still growing. Take Aqua Sur as an example: this trade show now claims to be the world's largest aquaculture trade fair, with attendance of close to 31,000 people, surpassing the long-dominant Norway Aqua Nor.
Whether Chile can really turn "world's No. 1 in salmon" into reality this time, the industry will likely be watching closely in the years to come.
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