China's Distant-Water Squid Price Index Continued to Rise at a Slower Pace in April, Multiple Factors May Affect May Trends!

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China's Distant-Water Squid Price Index Continued to Rise at a Slower Pace in April, Multiple Factors May Affect May Trends!

In April 2025, China's distant-water squid price index continued its overall upward trend, but the pace of increase slowed markedly. According to data released by the Zhejiang Zhoushan International Agricultural Products Trade Center in conjunction with Shuliang Index, the April monthly index closed at a record high of 287.32 points, up 1.51% month-on-month, but the gain narrowed by 6.21 percentage points from the previous period, indicating that观望 (wait-and-see) sentiment and divergence emerged in the market at high price levels.

I. Overall Performance: Gains Amid Declines, Monthly Index Hits Record High

From the weekly performance, China's distant-water squid price index showed a clear correction in the second week of April, followed by phased stable fluctuations. As of the last week of April, the index closed at 281.62 points, down 2.49% from the end of March. Entering a phase of high-level oscillation, market activity declined and trading became more cautious.

II. Performance by Sea Area: "Three Up, One Down," Peru and Argentina in Focus

- Southeast Pacific The price index closed at 322.47 points, up 1.27% month-on-month, but the gain narrowed sharply by 8.24 percentage points from the previous month. In April, squid landings along the Peruvian coast were relatively low. Coupled with the Easter holiday and maritime storms, fishing vessel operations decreased, and some domestic vessels returned to port for maintenance. Overall, however, because terminal consumption was suppressed by high prices, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, quotations became more rational, and price gains slowed.

- Southwest Atlantic The price index stood at 211.44 points, up 2.60% month-on-month. Argentina's 2025 squid fishing situation was good, with cumulative production reaching 122,954 tons as of April 15. China remained its largest export market, accounting for 67% of imports in the first quarter. Chinese-funded fleets fished steadily in out-of-line fishing grounds, driving the overall price index upward.

- Northwest Pacific The price index reached 219.68 points, up sharply by 4.88% month-on-month. Affected by Japan's cut in squid quotas (a reduction of up to 76%) and the slow recovery of resources in other sea areas, Northwest Pacific prices were driven up by structural resource mismatch.

- Indian Ocean The price index edged down to 244.43 points, down 0.33% month-on-month. Because the region's output accounts for a relatively small share of the global total, fluctuations were mainly influenced by market conditions in other major production areas.

III. Weekly Fluctuations: "Up-Flat-Down" Intertwined, Southwest Atlantic Most Stable

Weekly data showed that the Southeast Pacific and Indian Ocean fluctuated most in the second week, with an overall obvious downward trend; the Northwest Pacific continued to rise in the first three weeks and stabilized in the fourth week; the Southwest Atlantic showed an "up-flat-up" pattern, closing at 174.21 points in the fourth week, up 3.36% month-on-month, making it the most stable sea area.

IV. Market Outlook: Watch Three Major Variables—Argentina, Falklands, and Peru

• Argentina: Has completed 97% of the catch volume for the same period in 2024. Some fleets caught high-quality squid within just 24 hours' sailing distance from Mar del Plata port, which may bring supplementary supply later.
• Falkland Islands: The first fishing season ended early on April 27, with only 22,000 tons harvested, far below expectations, which will reduce global supply in the short term.
• Peru: Set a squid quota of 190,000 tons for the first half of 2025. Together with new fishery management regulations, the resource recovery situation still needs to be observed.

V. May Forecast: High-Level Oscillation, Resources and Demand Still Dominate Trends

It is expected that after entering May, with terminal demand recovering and some distant-water fishing vessels returning to port to replenish stocks, China's distant-water squid market will maintain a "ample supply + weak demand" pattern, and the price index may show a high-level oscillating trend. In the medium to long term, tightening international resource management and summer peak-season consumption may provide some support for prices.

Industry participants are advised to strengthen dynamic monitoring and do a good job in risk management for inventory and price fluctuations to cope with the increasingly uncertain global squid market.

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