Norway's salmon exports hit record 43,800 tonnes in a single week, with large-fish quotes to China climbing to NOK 100/kg ahead of National Day!

Norway's salmon exports have once again rewritten history. According to data from Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC), in week 38 of 2026 (September 13 to 19), Norway's salmon export volume reached 43,800 tonnes (round weight), smashing the previous record of 245 tonnes set in mid-August and up 22.3% from the same week in 2025. More notably, even as export volumes surged to a record level, spot prices rose rather than fell—Norway's average spot price edged up NOK 0.19 that week to NOK 65.94 per kg (about GBP 5.18). A record weekly export volume combined with rising spot prices is a volume-price combination rarely seen in the history of Norwegian salmon exports.

In terms of average export prices, Norway's global average export price for all salmon categories in week 38 was NOK 72.50 per kg (about USD 7.61, EUR 6.72). Among the major markets covered by the statistics, China and Poland ranked at the top on both unit price and export volume for consecutive weeks: Poland corresponds to intra-European processing and distribution demand, while China corresponds to concentrated purchasing ahead of the October 1 National Day Golden Week.

By size grade, the large-fish premium in the Chinese market stood out in this round. Exporter quotes show that ahead of Golden Week, 3-4 kg grades were quoted at NOK 62-70 per kg, 4-5 kg grades at NOK 64-70 per kg, and 5-6 kg grades at NOK 67-72 per kg; quotes for large grades above 6 kg reached NOK 85-95 per kg, with the overall range reaching as high as NOK 70-100 per kg depending on delivery date. Among these, cargo for delivery on Thursday, before the holiday begins, was quoted at up to NOK 100 per kg. China's preference for large grades above 6 kg, combined with concentrated restocking before the holiday, is the direct support for higher large-fish quotes.

The import pace at domestic ports corroborates this market trend. On the eve of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, imported fresh products are arriving in concentrated volumes: Nanjing Airport imports about 380 tonnes of fresh products per week, up 30% week on week, with Bangladeshi mud crabs, Norwegian salmon and Korean pomfret arriving densely; from January to August 2026, Nanjing Airport imported a cumulative 3,408 tonnes of fresh products, up 144% from the same period in 2025. Since September, Beijing Capital Airport has received nearly 600 tonnes of inbound fresh products, valued at more than RMB 63 million. As one of the core categories for dual-holiday fresh gift boxes and catering channels, salmon's expanded air-freighted arrivals before the holiday occurred in the same time window as the upward movement in large-grade quotes on the Norwegian side.

The cost structure Chinese importers face in this round is as follows: the week 38 global average export price of NOK 72.50 per kg is an average calculated across all categories and all sizes, while Chinese purchasing is concentrated in grades above 3 kg, so actual procurement costs are significantly higher than this level; quotes of NOK 85-95 for large fish above 6 kg are already clearly about 20% above the all-category average. Whether the holiday period can absorb this premium depends on actual sell-through at catering and retail terminals during Golden Week.

In the short term, actual consumption during the National Day Golden Week and the restocking pace of catering and retail channels after the holiday will determine whether Norwegian salmon quotes to China can hold at current levels in the first half of October. Norway's weekly export data for weeks 39 and 40, together with China's landed quotes, will provide the answer to this round of the market.