EU's 21st Sanctions Round Drops Cod Import Ban; Russia's Alaska Pollock Fillet Share of EU Market Rises to 51%!

From January to July 2026, Russia's total seafood exports to the EU amounted to 113,000 tonnes and US$513 million; of this, frozen Alaska pollock fillets (Alaska pollock) accounted for 80,000 tonnes and US$274 million, with export volume up 16% year-on-year and export value up 44% year-on-year, raising its EU market share from 44% to 51% and making Russia the largest supplier of this category to the EU. The 80,000 tonnes accounted for roughly 70% of Russia's total seafood exports to the EU in the same period. Extrapolating from the growth rates, Alaska pollock fillet exports to the EU in the same period last year were approximately 69,000 tonnes and US$190 million. The above figures come from calculations by the Russian Fisheries Union based on Eurostat data.

The direct backdrop to the share increase is the trade-off over sanctions provisions. In June 2026, the European Commission included fisheries in the scope of restrictions for the first time in the draft of the 21st round of sanctions against Russia, proposing import restrictions on certain fish products and a full embargo on others (including cod). Five countries—Germany, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Portugal—raised objections, and the relevant provisions were modified in line with member states' industry interests during consultations in the Committee of Permanent Representatives on July 13; when the 21st round package was unanimously approved by the 27 member states on July 23, all aquatic product restriction provisions had been removed. The opposing side cited the 13.6% contraction of the European fishing fleet since 2014 and the continued decline in its own catch, while Alaska pollock fillets are the raw material for Europe's fish and chips and reprocessing lines.

Over the same period, supplies to the EU from the two main competitors contracted in tandem: US supplies to the EU fell 16% to 52,500 tonnes, and China's fell 10% to 23,000 tonnes.

Export volume grew 16% while export value grew 44%, with the gap reflected in prices—the average export price of Russian Alaska pollock fillets to the EU was pushed up to US$3,303/tonne, up 21% year-on-year.

Other species under whitefish moved in the same direction. Over the same period, Russia exported 6,300 tonnes of frozen whole Atlantic cod (true cod) to the EU worth US$58 million, with the average export price up 38% year-on-year; 6,400 tonnes of frozen cod fillets worth US$78 million, with the average price up 33% year-on-year. Frozen surimi exports were 5,900 tonnes worth US$13.1 million; frozen herring exports to the EU resumed after a two-year interruption, at 4,000 tonnes worth US$5 million. The average price increases for the two cod categories were higher than that for Alaska pollock fillets, directly related to the larger cut in the cod total allowable catch.

Upstream contraction moved in the same direction as prices. The 2026 total allowable catch for Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea was cut 16% from about 339,000 tonnes in 2025 to 285,000 tonnes; the US Alaska B season catch consisted of smaller individuals, with fillet output down nearly 30% year-on-year; and Russia's at-sea surimi production fell by more than 20%.

Rising prices changed the behaviour of Russian exporters. In 2025, domestic consumption of Russian PBO fillets nearly doubled to 50,000 tonnes, and exporters were more inclined to hold stock and wait. German retail channels reacted in the opposite direction—Aldi cut the selling price of Alaska pollock fish fingers from €2.69 to €2.49.

Germany is the largest single EU market for Russian Alaska pollock fillets: 57,500 tonnes and €166 million, accounting for 72% of Russia's total Alaska pollock fillet exports to the EU.

On the Asian side, growth is concentrated in South Korea. From January to August, Russia exported 12,000 tonnes of Alaska pollock fillets to South Korea worth US$36 million, up 30% and 55% year-on-year respectively; herring exports to South Korea reached 15,000 tonnes, nearly doubling, with export value rising to more than US$16 million. Total exports to South Korea were 164,000 tonnes and US$646 million, up 10% year-on-year, of which live and frozen crab combined accounted for about US$255 million, nearly half of the total. South Korea is not only a consumer market but also an Asian transshipment link for Russian seafood entering Europe; Alaska pollock products enter the EU after transshipment or reprocessing via South Korea.

The processing link in China is also part of this chain. In the first half of 2026, the average export price of Chinese processed Alaska pollock products was US$3,299/tonne, up 28% year-on-year, essentially on par with the US$3,303/tonne average price of Russian fillets supplied directly to the EU. Russian raw material reprocessed in China and then shipped to the EU, together with direct Russian supply to the EU, forms two parallel channels.

Three arrangements yet to be settled will determine the raw material cost of this route: the 2027 total allowable catch for cod in the Barents Sea has not yet been set, the US Alaska B season production settlement has not been published, and the review of the list for the EU's next round of sanctions against Russia is expected in October according to public information.