El Niño hits fishmeal and fish oil output in Peru and Chile; global fishmeal production down 49% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026

In the first seven months of 2026, global fishmeal production fell 49% year-on-year, while fish oil production dropped 30%. Peru and Chile were the largest contributors to this decline, as El Niño continued to affect output in these two major producing countries. Lower catches in parts of Africa and Northern Europe further widened the global supply gap.

Enrico Bachis, Director of Market Research at IFFO, said in a press release that the reduction in South American fishmeal and fish oil supply may be offset by parts of Asia that enter their peak fishing season in the fourth quarter, with China, India and Oman among the representatives.

China's domestic fishmeal and fish oil production resumed in August. Preliminary estimates show that China's domestic production in the first seven months of 2026 was better than the same period last year, but the supply situation for fish raw material since August remains to be seen.

In China, August is the summer peak and a critical growth stage for aquaculture species, as well as a period of increased management difficulty and higher production risk. Recent extreme weather events, including typhoons, have further disrupted coastal aquaculture operations. Although overall demand for aquafeed has entered its seasonal peak, demand varies markedly across species.

For specialty species such as largemouth bass, snakehead and yellow catfish, farm-gate prices have remained weak. Market data show that stocking of these species in the first half of 2026 declined year-on-year, indicating that feed demand and fishmeal consumption during the grow-out stage may weaken. By contrast, demand for feed and fishmeal for higher-margin, higher-value species has remained stable or shown signs of improvement. However, persistently high farming costs combined with reduced supply led to an overall year-on-year decline in fishmeal consumption.

In China's pig farming sector, fishmeal consumption has likewise been sluggish, mainly due to weaker demand for piglet feed and commercial piglet feed. Under current market conditions, fishmeal demand in the pig farming sector is unlikely to recover significantly for the remainder of 2026.